The debate began last night and continues to this day: why polls; “Sociologists saw a trend in the outcome in unweighted samples, but due to harsh criticism from SYRIZAthey avoided their announcement, preferring to give favorable assessments of the left party,” an experienced political scientist answers in an interview with “K”.

“The data was, we left them”

In what condition did the election campaigns work during this period? MRB CEO Dimitris Mavroswho, speaking on OPEN TV, said that the results of the polls of recent days essentially echo the results of the ballot box.

“A simple weighing of the data paid off,” Mr. Mavros said, characteristically spitting at the main opposition party for its handling of the campaigns. “The truth is that when you are under pressure from 2015 to the present day on a moral, methodological, scientific, communicative level from a certain area – as in September 2015 and in the elections of 2019 – that you underestimate the party, then after as you get this data, you start saying “already half a minute, is that an exaggeration? Am I underestimating again? As a result, the data did not move away from us – methodologically there is a tool – we tended to move away from the data because we experienced post-traumatic shock from previous situations,” he said, adding: “Imbalances were brought to the surface. Do you know how many units of difference? All that came out. If we left like this, you know what the next step would be? “But these samples you tell us should be thrown away, throw them away!” So how would we react, especially in the run-up to elections?”

Undecided are key

With his hand, Giorgos Arapoglu, head of the Pulse survey companypresenting to “K” the results of the elections in the first reading, emphasizes that the deviation is also due to an overestimation of the percentage of SYRIZA from what it actually was.

He notes that in September 2015, “there were accusations of underestimating SYRIZA in opinion polls.”

Another important reason, as he mentions, for the deviation was undecided behaviorincluding new voters which until the last moment they preferred sociologists “White paper”.

“According to the exit poll, those who have recently made up their minds make up a double-digit percentage – about 19%. Most of them seem to have been aimed at the New Republic. Also, asking where young voters are heading all this time could change the picture we see in the polls. And there most young people moved more towards ND than towards SYRIZA. In other words, the ruling party, as it were, emerged victorious from all those “gray zones” that bothered us, expanding its difference,” Mr. Arapoglu emphasizes.

Youth is an unshakable factor

He adds that the main way to balance the results is through weighting, that is, the question “what did you vote for in the previous election.” Judging by the response, the sample is representative of all parties. “However, to young people, when you ask them “what did you vote for in the previous elections”, the answer is: “they were not eligible,” so they did not vote. When four years have passed since the previous elections, this group of new voters, who cannot be “weighed” because they have not voted in previous times, is very large. Therefore, one cannot be sure that this part of the youth is politically representative of the proportions that actually exist among the youth. That was another reason we were looking forward to what they would vote for.“.

“Generation Z seems to have found more in the government or the prime minister than what they consider important.”