elections Sundays at Türkiye at present, they represent perhaps the most important object of interest for American foreign policy, second only to the war in Ukraine and, of course, the longstanding rivalry with China. In the current attempt by Washington to use the results of the elections in Turkey in order for Ankara to “turn” geopolitically more towards the West, as it was before 2016, it is quite obvious that an attempt to resolve the Greek-Turkish disputes is also laid.

Washington’s intentions are evidenced by a number of steps, the most characteristic of which is the very balanced position of the last three months both in NATO, where USA returned to traditional neutrality when it comes to exercises or other activities in the Aegean (if it is not about Ukraine, where the Americans operate autonomously), as well as at the level of public rhetoric with various small steps, such as the promotion of small arms, which used as “sweeteners”.

A few days ago, the Greek public faced with some confusion the statement of the US Ambassador to Athens, George Tsunis, about the possibility of a dialogue between Greece and Turkey, as well as some indications of the position of the EU. against Ankara. Of course, the goal of American diplomacy is not so much to create a more positive climate per se in US-Turkish relations, but to show that Washington can be the most honest player in a possible mediation between Athens and Ankara.

Therefore experienced and competent observers commented “K” that the statements of Mr. Tsunis at Delphi were in fact made to be heard on the other side of the Aegean, namely in Turkey. Like, added, like his posts Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the “other side” they did not refer to the Aegean, but … to the Atlantic. Thus, in this diplomatic chess of managing future US-Turkish relations, the Greek-Turkish language plays a more important role than in the past.

New governments

According to the schedule, the new governments in Athens and Ankara will be formed no later than mid-July. The difficulties are, of course, of a completely different nature in Athens and Ankara, since in the latter case, a stalemate could lead Turkey to lasting instability. If there are clear decisions on both sides of the Aegean, then, according to some reports, Washington is not going to wait for the arrival of autumn. On the contrary, the US will try to cultivate the conditions for creating a climate for some first contacts in the summer.

According to the same information, there is a general trend in the State Department towards a heated discussion of “soft” issues, such as energy, and not on pipelines and maritime zones, but on less sensitive issues, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG). ). In short, Americans want the so-called positive agenda to be set in motion as soon as possible after the election. Then, of course, other procedures may follow (investigative contacts, political dialogue, confidence building measures, etc.).

Greek-Turkish relations are becoming an important factor in the warming of relations between Ankara and Washington.

Defense is another tool that Washington retains to manage Greek-Turkish relations. It seems that based on the current situation, the US will not change the design that puts Greece in clear air leadership through the purchase of the F-35 (internal procedures and, in general, the budget for the fifth generation fighters are a different issue), but until then, as long as there is a significant western shift in post-election Turkey, Congress is unlikely to be able to block the advancement of some equipment that is considered important to the combat value of the Turkish military, such as upgrading the F-16 fighter jets and, mainly, the abandonment of small but significant programs maintenance of existing weapons systems.

Athens is closely and with particular interest following all these processes. Relations with Washington remain excellent, and this has been confirmed very recently at the operational level. According to well-informed sources, at a critical moment on Thursday, April 27, when a Greek C-130 was waiting at Wadi Seidna airbase to board the last 39 Greek and foreign nationals from Khartoum, GETHA head Konstantinos Floros and his staff at the National Operations Center in Athens received a live image from an MQ-9 type UAV flying several thousand feet above the terrain.

In principle, Greek diplomacy wants a speedy improvement in US-Turkish relations, since it is believed that Ankara, within the framework of Western structures, can be less aggressive. There is a willingness to start some kind of process, while it is known that the prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis as well as the leader of SYRIZA Alexis Tsipras they advocate – with different shades – for the Greek-Turkish dialogue, with the behind-the-scenes assistance of the United States.

Hope for normalization

As for close Greek-Turkish relations, Athens believes that the election of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu will certainly bring normalization of US-Turkish relations, but there is relative concern about the stability of a coalition with many disparate elements. It is also assumed that in the event of Erdogan’s re-election, it is very likely that the general policy of protecting the reputation of the Turkish president will prevail. Erdogan himself is 69 years old, and any re-election would mean that he would remain president until the age of 74. Therefore, many in Athens believe that Mr. Erdogan will try to complete what he sees as a legacy for the future, the first four years of his tenure as prime minister (2003-2007), when he established himself as a successful reformer and laid the foundations his future government.

In fact, given that the recovery of the earthquake-hit south and southeast of Turkey will necessarily lead in the coming years to more capital raising and the possibility of investing it in the Erdogan-stamped sector (construction), which usually produces high growth rates, it is believed that the incumbent will try to act as a guarantor of a better standard of living for the Turks. Exactly the way it started.