Most opinion polls show that the party of Ilias Kasidiaris has a chance to get into parliament. Therefore, a reasonable question is where his voters will go if the Supreme Court does not approve the gathering of one or another party in the elections.

An analysis of the characteristics of these voters shows where they can move, but, above all, where they are unlikely to go.

Taking as a starting point the X-ray image of the Golden Dawn voting, as well as research data regarding the current potential voters of the Casidiaris party, the profile of a particular area is clearly visible.

Usually this is the birth of a crisis, economic and political. Its rise was a consequence of the deregulation of the political system due to the economic crisis. And its decline in the 2019 elections is largely due to the closure of the tension cycle of the last 10 years.

These are voters with “anti-systemic” characteristics, anti-institutional perceptions and non-existent political and social trust.

They are evil. Identification with the Nazi positions of their leadership naturally exists and fuels their anti-political fury.

Most are male, younger, living in poorer areas or areas with a high immigrant presence. With a low degree of economic satisfaction and economic views, as a rule, anti-liberal, anti-capitalist, in favor of a closed, protectionist model.

Their educational level is correspondingly low, and they are updated almost exclusively via the Internet. And their dislike of the media is absolute and universal.

The most likely version is selective separation. With one section dealing with parties with some political overlaps, a second fragment and a third opting for invalidation and abstention.

They are sharply anti-European and generally anti-Western, while having a favorable view of authoritarian leaders or regimes.

Their views on issues of personal rights and freedoms are extremely anti-liberal. With regard to immigration issues, their positions go beyond political conservatism and clearly move into the realm of racism.

Prioritizing the above characteristics, the ones that seem most decisive in shaping a particular space – along with, of course, the Nazi background and element of violence that are the most fundamental – are not those that have an ideological background, but those that have a predominantly psychological background. . Anger, anti-systemic logic, the threat of marginalization. From here, the dynamics of a particular space changes. In times of political “normality” its appeal diminishes. During periods of stress, her mobility increases, for example, happened with measures during the pandemic.

The question of how potential voters of the party of Ilias Kasidiaris will behave if his participation is banned cannot be answered unambiguously. What can be answered is which parties are excluded from voting.

ND, for example, the most traditional, systemic, pro-European party, with voters having a relatively high degree of economic satisfaction, is by no means their choice, despite any overlap in some social or defense issues. An assessment supported by the fact that the criminal prosecution of Chrysis Avgi was initiated during the co-government of N.D. – PASOK in 2013, but the current possible ban will be based on a regulation put in place by the government of North Dakota.

In the same way, there can be no question of PASOK, also a “systemic” party that has several characteristics in common with the ND. in terms of country orientation and even more liberal in social issues.

SYRIZA, which is no longer considered an anti-systemic party, but is considered less systemic than ND. and PASOK, has some “anger” overlaps with the “orphans of Casidiaris,” but its political starting point, its ideological references, and its chaotic differences in political and social liberalism also rule it out. Even if some votes go to him, it will not be because of merit, but because of vindictiveness towards the ND. which began their exclusion from the elections.

The most likely version at this stage seems to be selective separation. One part is directed to parties with some political overlap (such as Hellenic Solution or other parties on the radical right), the second is fragmented by the right and left in such a way that it does not affect electoral ratios, and the third opts for invalid abstentions. A version which in any case, however, deprives the concrete space of the regulatory role it sometimes had in the recent past.

Mr. Eftichis Vardoulakis is a strategy and communications consultant.