One was looking for a way around a pending injunction against his party’s participation in the elections. Convicted and imprisoned for the gar criminal organization. The other, who had recently shown political ambitions, having founded a political formation, was looking for a way to declare his ambitions and a means of improving the prospect of realizing them.

This is how the “marriage of convenience” of Ilias Kasidiaris with the honorary prosecutor of the Supreme Court Anastasios Kanellopoulos appeared. This is the latest “act” in the very dynamic realm of the Greek far right, where new formations come and go, alliances and coalitions form and fall, complaints come in profusely, and what everyone wants is a coveted 3% to open up. doors of parliament

The key to all this mobility lies precisely in the inevitable scenario for Ilias Kasidiaris of banning the descent of his party in the upcoming elections. The National Party – Hellenes (formerly Hellenes for the Motherland, with a name change after the Internet party, called the abbreviation GTP) is gaining a percentage in public opinion polls that seems to provide it with a comfortable passage to parliament. The percentage that all other parties, formations, formations more or less to the right of the right envy and envy. The reason is simple: if the Kasidiaris party is banned from participating in the elections, then potential voters, who give percentages of about 3.5% in public opinion polls (down to 4%), will remain “orphans” and in search of a political roof. In one space, of course, they will not go far.

But what is the profile of potential voters of the “party of Cassidiaris”? An analysis of the surveys shows that these are mainly men from the age group of 30-44 years old and secondarily from the group of 17-29 years old. Politically they place themselves on the right or nowhere. It is calculated that, in all likelihood, they voted for A.A. in previous elections. In addition, the “Party of Cassidiari” is considered the successor to A.A., who lost in the polls.

suitors

A man in his thirties, embittered, with self-positioning on the right or nowhere: these are the characteristics of the audience of a party founded by a convicted criminal organization.

Who are the “suitors” claiming a piece of the “Kessidian pie” if the “Greeks” are forbidden to participate in the elections? Hellenic Solution expects that this could generate some profit. A patriotic union, the Prodromos Emfietzoglou party, seeks to represent the region and fill the void that the impending ban will cause. Konstantinos Bogdanos recently joined them, terminating the alliance he made with Aphrodite Latinopoulou some time ago, having previously withdrawn from the national creation scheme, which also claims voters in this area. Now it remains to be seen how Aphrodite Latinopoulou will move, whether she will join the existing scheme or continue her own political movement. We said mobility in space is intense. The prospect of an “orphaned” 4% of voters raises hopes and fuels ambitions.

This is how the “neighborhood” of Kasidiaris-Kanellopoulos arose. The honorary prosecutor, in the founding declaration of his political formation, EAN speaks of a party that, among other things, “will destroy the patriotic and religious feelings of the Greeks, put an end to the illegal immigrant colonization of the country, legally free the center of the capital and its other areas, as well as the rest of Greece from the suffocating atmosphere that emanates from the flow of illegal immigrants”.

Public opinion polls, as well as the historical evolution of the dynamics of the space to the right of the Right, show that the preponderance is specific and, regardless of the number of contenders, the pie does not grow. Political scientists note that throughout the post-colonial period, the political space to the right of N.D. formed at a rate close to 7%. Usually one party manages to become independent and dominate, in the past it was LAOS, now the Hellenic solution is being promoted in this space, and smaller parties are rising well below the parliamentary threshold. That changed in the 2012 election, when AA, boosted by a wave of anti-systemic voting, managed to win 6.97%, a percentage it maintained in the next two election campaigns. Part of this dynamic seems to still exist in the electorate and has been concentrated in the Kasidiari party.

The question is whether aspiring contenders for his constituency stand a chance of attracting enough of them to enter parliament. There is no simple answer, and it cannot be given through surveys. Only in practice will it be seen if there is an injunction on the relationship of the “Greeks”, whether their voters will move somewhere else in the short time remaining before the elections, or whether they will also be a personal audience of Ilias Kasidiaris and will not go anywhere.

It will also be seen in the near future whether the prevailing assessment in the area of ​​these political formations that the accident in Tempe could provoke a powerful wave of anti-systemic voting that will be directed against them has a basis. At the moment, the polling data does not seem to live up to these expectations, as the “small” gain from the “big” losses and any protest vote caused by Tempe did not go there, only by a very small percentage.