The “ghost” of a quiet vote or a protest vote hovers over Megaro Maximu and Komunduru with the party headquarters of the ND. and SYRIZA reflect on the fact that after the tragedy at Tempe and at a time when it was time for elections On May 21st, the so-called “gray zone” – that is, those who declare their indecision or move towards white, emptiness and abstinence – remains at a particularly high level. That is at a rate approaching 16.5% according to the latest Pulse survey for SKAI.

Gray area x-rays have become a priority for parties looking for answers in quantitative and qualitative research, and Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis is adjusting aspects of the ND’s campaign strategy. in order for the ruling party to attract voters from this pool. As they say, the undecided and those who are moving towards whiteness, emptiness and abstinence, including those who have distanced themselves from N.D. after Tempe – can be divided into two categories, arising from the question of what party choice they would get if “they are forced to vote and that’s too direct”.

The first is ready to move among the parties that are also represented in this parliament. The second says that if she were forced to exercise her right to vote, she would turn to one of the protest parties that have no chance of getting into the next parliament.

According to the same sources, with respect to those from the gray zone who say they will vote for one of the parliamentary parties, SYRIZA has relatively few options, while smaller formations, i.e. KKE, Hellenic Solution, MeRA25 , as well as the Kasidiaris party, seem to have made some profit from the new political scene that has emerged since the Tempi tragedy. On the contrary, a large proportion of the centrist citizens who approached Mr. Mitsotakis in 2019 now seem to be moving between N.D. and KINAL. These voters criticize the ruling party for not resolutely pushing for reforms and, despite having a full four years at their disposal, “have not changed the state” and, according to government officials, are not going to vote for the ND. who are now hoping for a “second chance” or “tolerant” vote on their part in the May 21 elections.

New goals

The above analysis, as mentioned above, is expected to result in certain adjustments to Megaros Maximos’ election strategy. Especially:

• N.D. she will not stop comparing the achievements of her four-year government with those of SYRIZA, but will advance her commitments to the future. In the so-called “gray zone” in the “continuity or change” dichotomy, priority is given to the request for change, and Mr. Mitsotakis tries to express this by taking part in many new faces as well as bolder reforms, mainly in the field of the state.

Comparison of N.D. with SYRIZA it will not be abandoned, but priority will be given to its future commitments.

• Megaros Maximos will focus on the stakes of the first elections, arguing that they will come from who – ND or SYRIZA – the country will be governed, and from the latter how it will be governed (autonomy or cooperation government). The emphasis on the first election is due to the fact that the swingers, who are primarily targeted by the SI, while prioritizing political stability, are also attracted to a large extent by the prospects of cooperative governments in the sense that they believe that more effective control is provided by the appropriate body. .

• Mr. Mitsotakis will bear an even greater “burden” during the ND campaign. than planned. And this remains a strength of the ruling party as prime minister, and the “right-wing” rhetoric of some of its leaders repels centrist swing voters.

Like European elections?

It should be noted that fears about a possible wave of “soft voting” or “protest voting” are reinforced by the fact that the May 21 elections will be held in a peculiar political environment: firstly, citizens will be invited, as mentioned above, to vote with still fresh memories of the national tragedy of Tempe. Secondly, they will represent, according to all available polling data, a “preliminary” electoral competition: with the final struggle for formation, which the parties are waging in early July, in the elections that will be held on the basis of the N.D. electoral law, the upcoming polls may show similarities with past European election contests.

As you know, European elections traditionally do not favor large parties, and especially the one that is responsible for governing the country. Moreover, it is characteristic that at the last European elections – in 2019 – N.D. and especially SYRIZA, which at that time was the power, in fact, could not receive significant benefits from the so-called. “grey zone” in the “pair first” confrontation. In particular, in public opinion polls three days before the European elections on May 26, 2019 with a “gray zone” of 10.5%, ND. it turned out that they scored 31%, and SYRIZA – 24% (Pulse for SKAI), and in the polls they received 33.1% and 23.9% respectively.

As for the profile of voters who declared themselves undecided or who chose a pass, invalidity or abstention, these are mainly young voters, as well as voters of the so-called dynamic age, from 39 to 44 years old, with the “gray zone” After the railway accident also fueled ND voters. 2019. Also, a significant part of this “pie” declares their disinterest in the electoral process, in which power will appear as a result of the upcoming double vote, as well as in politics in general. Finally, for the 420,000 new voters who registered on the voter lists after 2019 and will now be voting for the first time, the number of undecided votes remains high. As they say, SYRIZA has an advantage among those who answered that they will go to the polls, but not as much as Kumunduru suggests.