With an eye on the swingers, who are confidently moving well above the 10% percentage of the electorate and will largely judge the outcome of the upcoming elections, they define their strategy. N.D. And SYRIZAwhile Megaros Maximos focused primarily on the “repatriation” of voters who distanced themselves from the ruling party after Tempe National Tragedy. At the same time, the question is how his “right-wing” voters will behave in the elections. PASOK after the “ban” imposed in the most categorical way by Nikos Androulakis on the prospect of cooperation with the ND. with him as prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and the foggy landscape that was created in relation to a political man who could take the post of prime minister.

Even within N.D. the analysis of how the waverers will ultimately behave is patchy: most executives believe that as the emotional charge caused by the fatal train accident subsides and election dilemmas come to the fore, it will take two next three weeks for the return of the large mass “blue” voters, who at this stage seem alienated. On the contrary, other leaders, even in Maximos Palace, report that the regrouping of N.D. this may prove to be a more difficult task than expected. As they say, some voters chose N.D. and Kyriakos Mitsotakis as prime minister based, among other things, on the declaration of the restoration of the orderly functioning of the state apparatus and therefore may not return to the ruling party at the last stage before the first elections on 21 May. It is noted that according to the latest poll (Metron Analysis for Mega), 25% of voters moving in the so-called gray zone in 2019 voted for N.D. against only 6% who chose SYRIZA and PASOK respectively.

The assessment that the aforementioned voters will not return to the ruling party is also formulated by Komunduru officials, referring to their own qualitative polls. However, the same sources acknowledge that SYRIZA has not been making a profit since the Tempe tragedy. They themselves are hoping for an “anti-government current” that they claim could emerge “above the ballot box.”

The second barometer of the outcome of the upcoming elections may be the behavior of PASOK voters after the “high-risk” step of Nikos Androulakis to refer to the person of the next prime minister without naming him, which caused a flurry of attacks from N.D. and SYRIZA, but also confrontation with his co-candidate leader Andreas Loverdos. Harilaou Trikoupis leaders note that in the medium term, Mr. Androulakis’s transition could prove beneficial as it could unify PASOK’s electoral base, which is divided between those who want cooperation with ND, those who want to move closer to SYRIZA, and those who are supporters of the party’s autonomous course. On the contrary, however, he may lead a critical portion of his voters to ND, and even from the first contest of simple proportionality, making it extremely difficult to achieve the stated goal of a strong double-digit percentage. In other words, there are fears that PASOK will come under the expected “pressure” on the last stretch of the road to the second elections, already on its way to the ballot boxes on 21 May.

Target

Based on the data above, as well as existing public opinion polls, there is optimism in Megaros Maximos that in the first election, N.D. it could move to a percentage of around 33%-34%, which is considered sufficient springboard to achieve the goal of self-reliance in the second election, which is scheduled for July 2 and will be held in accordance with the new electoral law. . The same sources characterize the “rerun” elections as a one-way street, as they suggest SYRIZA will be the second party with a percentage that could approach but not exceed 30%, while PASOK’s endurance under pressure is yet to be proven from the two largest parties. .

Finally, the “keys” to the final results of the upcoming dual elections are also expected to be:

• The height and composition of temperance. Current opinion polls do not show that citizens are turning away from the electoral process after the Tempe tragedy. However, the second elections will be held on July 2, i.е. “at the height” of the summer season, when many, mostly young people in tourism are far away from their place of residence and it is difficult for them to vote.

• The number of parties that will be represented in parliament after the second election. If the next parliament ends up being seven-party, with the presence of MeRA 25 and the formation of Kasidiaris – if the Supreme Court allows him to stand in the elections – the bar for autonomy will be raised very high, making it extremely difficult to achieve the goal of autonomy.

• The dilemmas that will prevail and the “comparison” of four-year-old Mitsotakis and Tsipras. The prime minister makes the argument that the country needs an independent government to avert the risk of instability, while the SYRIZA president forms a government following the May 21 elections, although it is not clear if the necessary government partners are in place. “available” – PASOK and Day 25 – and who will be the face of the premier. At the same time, the forthcoming elections have the peculiarity that Mr. Mitsotakis and Mr. Tsipras, both prime ministers, will “duel” and therefore their performance can be compared.

stigma

N.D. is in search of a central slogan that would like to express “Change”, a word that precedes all the measurements that have been made. The equation is not easy, as the current government is seeking an extension of the mandate.

faces

Unexpectedly, Akis Skertsos will be the next government spokesman, and Maximos’ staff are also looking for a “bigger” party member to form the central duo. Pavlos Marinakis, the ND secretary, who already has many flying hours under his belt, dominates.

Forearm

At one of the last meetings in Maximos, the conviction was expressed that 34% is an ideal and at the same time achievable goal for N.D. The reality is that even at 33% in N.D. they will be happy and ready to fight for their confidence in a repeat second round.

S. P.