fifty three days before ballot boxes, political parties they enter the election game with some data. The Tempe accident changed the political scene and the more than seven-point safety margin that was secured New Democracy. The “blue” faction expects some “corrections” on the way to the elections, while the commander at this stage, they are content to maintain their strength and appear to have no leaks towards anti-system voting.

OUR Nikos Androulakiswith his harsh criticism of the two “greats” and his rejection of Kyriakou Mitsotakis and his Alexis Tsipras as prime minister, he is trying to draw a red line against the cooperation of past governments. He shows how PASOK he does not intend to be the “complement” or “continuation” of the party that will be the first to cut the thread on May 21st.

The air of victory that the New Democracy possesses this is evidenced by the superiority in the polls that she has shown since the beginning of 2016. For more than 85 months, the “blue” faction has not been subjected to “threats” from SYRIZA, and even more so during the four-year period of its rule.

Punctuality, the pandemic, immigration, the energy crisis and the difficult relationship with Turkey were some of the main issues she had to deal with when the opposition was generally against her. For most, a simple proportional ballot box is a “self-confidence exercise” since the percentage he receives will be a benchmark for how he will move in the next election.

They believe in Komundur that they will be the first to cut the thread to start negotiations with PASOK and also with MERA25. The “equation” becomes more complex by the time that Nikos Androulakis ruled out collaboration with Janis Varoufakis.

For more than 85 months, SYRIZA has been unable to challenge the leadership of the ruling party in opinion polls.

Powers have already put their strengths under the microscope, but also their weaknesses. According to exit polls, SYRIZA in 2019 became the “champion” in the age group 17-34 years old., outperforming New Democracy by about 7 points. Kumunduru believes that this gap has increased, expecting that the elections will be mainly young people born between 2003 and 2006, who did not vote in 2019. The number of “first-time” voters is estimated at around 400,000.

In the old days, the primacy of the New Democracy is not in dispute.. In the 35-54 age group, the difference was more than 10 points for the “blue” faction, while in the 55+ category, the reduction in pensions during the SYRIZA period gave New Democracy an increase of about 12%. Regionally, SYRIZA has won 10 out of 59 in the latest polls (Western Attica, Western Athens, II Piraeus, Chania, Heraklion, Rethymno, Lassifi, Achaia, Arta, Xanthi).

The file information provided by Pulse RC General Manager Giorgos Arapoglou “K” is of great interest. in relation to the most suitable prime minister. In memorable years, people’s frustration with failed economic policies led “Mr. Nobody” to record highs of over 40%. Characteristically, in September 2012 (after a double election campaign) Kanenas registered a percentage of 45%, A. Samaras 30% and Alexis Tsipras 25%. And during the period of SYRIZA from 2016 to 2018, the most suitable candidate for the post of prime minister was “Nobody” in the first place (40%+).

However, always in the pre-election periods, the leaders of the parties butted heads. In a July 2-3, 2019 Pulse Poll, Kyriakos Mitsotakis proved to be the better candidate for Prime Minister with 37%, Alexis Tsipras got 28% and “No” 28%. Recall that in the latest Pulse measurement, Mr. Mitsotakis leads in “fitness” with 37%, Kanenas is second with 34%, and Alexis Tsipras is third with 27%.

Self-confidence and scenarios

It is almost impossible to form a parliamentary majority on May 21 under the system of simple proportionality. When calculating non-parliamentary parties at about 8% (as in 2019), the share of the former should be 46.2%. Utopian scenario…

Therefore, there must be cooperation of forces. What data? The New Democracy seems determined to achieve independence on a second Sunday. If SYRIZA becomes the first party, then Nikos Androulakis has already “vetoed” Alexis Tsipras as prime minister, and so things get complicated, with it being questionable whether two party percentages will be enough, as PASOK also rejects a partnership with Varoufakis.

Because in the past there has never been a coup in terms of first place in the elections – opinion polls will show whether the rule will be confirmed – in Herodos Attica they are already looking at who the hand of self-reliance on July 2 is. The “scalable bonus” arithmetic shows that only a percentage above 37.5% can be considered “safe enough”.. What if it is not achieved? The country may be following “blurred paths”, although it will not be easy for someone to blame for the third appeal to the elections.