The Kilicdaroglu-Yavaz-Imamoglu scheme significantly increases Erdogan’s chances of an electoral defeat, which would allow Turkey to restore relations with the West. Murat Sommer, professor of political science and international relations at Koç University in Istanbul, expressed this assessment in “K”. He believes that the Turkish opposition should “be ready to mobilize people” in a scenario where Erdogan loses by a narrow margin, and disputes the outcome.

– I think that this event significantly increased the opposition’s chances of winning the elections and subsequent successful rule. Elections are just around the corner, and the opposition is competing on very unequal terms with the authoritarian regime. Therefore, it must pool its resources and political talents if it is to succeed. Kilicdaroglou, Javas, and Imoglou complement each other in terms of skills as well as their regional and demographic appeal. However, coordination and decision-making will prove difficult as the presidents of the alliance’s five parties will also become vice-presidents. Three Davids instead of one might be better at fighting a Goliath like Erdogan, but seven of them might end up defeating each other.

– There would be more Turkish foreign policy and less foreign policy – in fact – Erdogan. That is, it would be less personal and capricious and more institutional and predictable. It will also highlight Turkey’s traditional foreign policy of alliances with the West and the principles of regional stability and non-interference in domestic affairs. Of course, the opposition will pursue national interests both in Greek-Turkish and in other respects, but it will do so with more moderate speeches and the use of hard power. The opposition alliance includes two former foreign ministers. Ali Babacan, known for his pro-European politics and government policies based on soft power. Ahmet Davutoglu, known for his “zero problems with neighbors” policy before, of course, indulging in epic adventurism in Syria. Foreign policy is not Kilicdaroğlu’s specialty, but his vision was influenced by Kemal Atatürk’s slogan “peace at home and peace in the world”, as well as the policy of peace with Venizelos. Under Kilicdaroglu, Turkey will seek to revive European Union membership and NATO commitments as it seeks to join the F-35 project with the United States, abandoning Russia’s S-400 project. Democracy, by definition, will again become a link of partnership and cooperation.

The opposition must achieve an undeniable victory and be ready to mobilize the people in a scenario of not recognizing the election results.

“I think it goes deeper than just domestic politics. It depends on whether you mean temporary and transactional cooperation or sustainable and principled cooperation. Under Erdogan, Turkey is constantly moving away from the values ​​of the democratic West, even in more cooperative times. With Erdogan, Turkey’s Western ties cannot be sustainable in the long run, as they are undermined by the clash of values, principles and languages. This does not mean that Erdogan is simply against the West. There is also the authoritarian West, which we have seen in far-right parties and governments such as Orban in Hungary, Vučić in Serbia, with whom Erdoğan has absolutely no problems and looks up to him. He also had a very friendly relationship with President Trump’s US.

Yes, both countries should take advantage of this moment, but they will probably wait until the elections. These elections are not only for the opposition, but also for Erdogan. They occupy all our thoughts and attention. In the case of a devastating earthquake, few can understand and sympathize with the Turkish people as deeply as the Greeks. Geography, culture, politics – so much continuity beyond our borders. And the Turks will remember how quickly the Greek friends came to the rescue and how much we depend on each other in this part of the world.

– There is no doubt that Erdogan does not and will not accept any election results that will overthrow him, and will do everything in his power to deny the result. We saw it in 2015, 2017 and 2019. The question is whether he has enough power to silence the truth. And it is a fact that many people simply choose to turn their backs on the truth as long as the corrupt authoritarian seems to be “doing his job.” This is what has been happening to about half of the Turkish electorate for many years now. But will they continue to deny the result of the election, which is impossible to deny? This is what the opposition should do. Achieve an undeniable victory and be prepared to mobilize the people in a scenario of non-recognition of the election results. Turkey still has a very strong democratic reflex and a strong but distorted sense of democratic justice. Even elected autocrats like Erdogan must dominate elections and ensure the will of the majority to stay in power. The same people who want to make a hero out of a winner who plays dirty and “steals” may well be “booed” when that same player does not suffer a simple, brutal defeat.