This raises questions and new fears in the party headquarters. the political scene reflected in the polls almost three weeks after the Tempe tragedy, as the “draw party” emerges as the sole winner and the undecideds increase thematically: the latest Pulse poll for SKAI fixes them at 12.5% ​​vs. 9.5% for just a month previously.

It is well known that the jump into the area of ​​the undecided is largely associated with the demobilization of N.D. (moves to 28.5% vs. 32%) and does not lead to growth for SYRIZA (stable at 25%) and much more for PASOK, which shows a slight drop (9.5% vs. 10.5%).

So how the undecideds come to the polls will more than ever determine the final outcome of the upcoming dual elections. Moreover, the current opinion polls at the same time show that people are tuned in to political self-expression, since the Tempe tragedy does not actually increase the anti-systemic wave of abstinence (whites, disabled people, abstention slightly increases by 0.5%).

Three moves

For N.D. and SYRIZA the glass can be considered half full or half empty after the first round of elections after the tragedy in Tempe. In relation to N.D. it is considered a realistic scenario in the coming weeks to “repatriate” a percentage of about 1.5-2.5% of undecided young people and return to the trajectory of independence. The following are considered critical in this direction:

• Firstlyto regain the initiative of the movements. True, the “talks” about whether the elections will take place on April 9 or later, while the society was in shock and outrage, cost dearly.

• Secondlyto clarify whether Kostas Karamanlis will choose to run again or not. Conducting an appropriate discussion, regardless of the final decisions, was recognized as not beneficial for N.D.

• Thirdlyto adjust his election campaign in light of new data: Megaros Maximos planned to put the economy and the pursuit of “higher wages” at the center of Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ strategy, but it is clear that now, in the last stretch of the polls, the pro-state parties’ positions will dominate.

At the same time, the critical variables for N.D. will: “Compensate” part of their losses with the contribution of PASOK voters who do not want the return of Alexis Tsipras to the post of prime minister. And, at the same time, “testing” the political system should not lead to the entry into parliament of another party, in addition to the existing ones, i.e. Measure 25, since in this case the goal of self-reliance in the second election becomes practically unattainable.

“window of opportunity”

However, a new scenario emerges for Kumunduru. Its officials consider it important that the reaction of citizens be focused on the government, and not “spread out” to other systemic parties, and especially to SYRIZA. In this sense, a window of opportunity has been potentially created for the official opposition party, although remaining second and distant from the ND: by reducing the difference between the two main parties, conditions are created for “influxes”. created » by voters from neighboring political districts.

The “key” in this direction is considered to be a further change in the so-called victory indicator. In this important polling metric, ND’s lead remains strong (48% vs. SYRIZA’s 27% according to Pulse) but is also declining as the ruling party appears to have lost ten percentage points (from 58%) from a month earlier. If this trend continues, Koumunduru hopes to attract voters not only from the undecided pool, but also from PASOK, KKE and MeRA25 as the main spokesman for “political change” through the upcoming election contests.

Dates

As for the timing of the elections, the Prime Minister’s interlocutors say that Mr. Mitsotakis’ plan has crystallized. Simple proportional ballots will be set on May 21 or 28, with a second one on July 2, so that the electoral process will be completely out of touch with the national examination schedule. The same sources most categorically refute the scenarios of elections in mid-summer, adding that the prime minister should not expect an immediate announcement of the election date. As already mentioned, in the post-colonial period, the announcement of the exact date of the elections always, in fact, coincided with the announcement of the dissolution of Parliament.

For cooperation

Finally, it should be noted that the decrease in the percentage of N.D. put the discussion of partnerships on the back burner. Mr. Mitsotakis stated that in case of lack of self-confidence, he is open to cooperation with PASOK after the second elections. In fact, that is, we can talk about the Samaras-Venizelos type of co-government model, with Mr. Mitsotakis as prime minister and Nikos Androulakis as vice president. On the contrary, schemes of a “Papadimos government” with an outside prime minister or a “Zannetakis government” with someone else from the ND are dismissed as non-functional and dead ends. as prime minister. Given Mr. Androulakis’s “no Mitsotakis or Tsipras” stance, the scope for an agreement could be extremely limited, especially if PASOK is weakened by the upcoming elections, in which case a third vote could become inevitable.