Today’s visit of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to Athens takes place at a turning point in the “truce” in the Greek-Turkish language, which is associated with factors beyond the control of the human hand and mind, a natural disaster that razed southern Turkey to the ground.

Blinken’s original plan for the visit included a series of exhortations and advice to Athens to avoid further escalation of Greek-Turkish relations during the pre-election period, while at the same time there was a fierce fight between Ankara and Washington, as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appeared to be taking a tough “anti-American” line so popular among conservative AKP voters.

Thus, the devastating earthquakes served as a terrible tool to temporarily ease the Greco-Turkish tension.. The minister’s visit to Turkey has already taken place, with a first stop at the US base at Incirlik so Mr. Blinken can be briefed on US assistance to residents of affected cities in the wider region. The move to Ankara follows a second year in which Blinken will have to reunite with his colleague Mevlut Cavusoglu as, despite the earthquakes, Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO is urgently expected.

The significant absence at this stage of a clear timetable for holding elections in Turkey creates obstacles both in negotiations for the accession of the two countries to NATO, and, of course, in purely American-Turkish issues, such as the F-16 sale case, which met with strong resistance in Congress. .

While Erdogan’s need to solve problems for himself and his party at home upstages foreign policy, the membership of Sweden and Finland in NATO is paramount and expected to be at the center of the agenda.

In Washington, even before the disorganization caused by the earthquake in Ankara, they were ready for delays even until the next NATO meeting in order to “unblock” the entry of Sweden (Finland can also enter now on the basis of everything transferred by Ankara, but Helsinki does not want to join separately from its neighbor on that side of the Gulf of Bothnia), but now it seems that there is no other way out.

In Athens, it is considered positive that Mr. Blinken will arrive after completing his program in Ankara.. Will Mr. Blinken get some idea of ​​Mr. Erdogan’s electoral orientation and, of course, be willing to share it with the Prime Minister, whom he will meet in the afternoon at the Maximos Palace, shortly before lunch, which will be served in the honor of the presence of Ministers of Foreign Affairs Nikos Dendias and of National Defense Nikos Panagiotopoulos will be seen today. In the foursome of Kyriakos Mitsotakis with Mr. Blinken before dinner, where the line-up will be expanded, there will be the most meaningful discussion.

Anthony Blinken prioritizes removing Turkish obstacles to NATO expansion.

From Athens, attention falls on the Greek-Turkish and numerous aspects of the excellent relations between Greece and the United States in recent years, but the war in Ukraine remains the priority of American diplomacy at the moment.. Mr. Blinken is expected to speak publicly about the need to continue to support Ukraine until the final victory over Russia. In general, there is no pressure on Greece to further support weapons systems beyond what has already been provided to Ukraine and is still being shipped (mostly ammunition), at least at this stage. After the national elections, as the war in Ukraine does not seem to be ending, it cannot be ruled out that the pressure will return. Until now, the Allies have agreed that firepower cannot be excluded from the country’s defense system, especially in the face of – until February 6 – Turkish threats. On the contrary, it is expected that the American side will discuss the issue of sanctions against Russia and whether they are applied by Greece.

Central to Blinken’s visit is the start of the 4th Strategic Dialogue on Tuesday morning with Mr. Dendias and, of course, the discussion of the updated protocol for the Mutual Defense Cooperation Agreement (MDCA), which allowed the US and NATO to maintain support for NATO’s Eastern Wing, open through Alexandroupolis, without the stress caused by the impossibility of transferring military equipment and personnel through the straits. The prospect of further strengthening defense relations (F-35) in any case makes the MDCA a useful tool that could lead to additional investments such as those already made in the Larissa and Souda airbases, the Souda naval base and the port of Alexandroupoli. .

Uncertainty

As far as Greek-Turkish relations are concerned, a return to some kind of functional communication between the two sides is possible through certain procedures, first military confidence-building measures (CBMs), then intelligence contacts, and perhaps at some point political dialogue. Of course, the American side knows all this. What no one knows yet is who will be at the helm of Turkey in a few months and whether these discussions will be meaningful in the next stage.