A scenario of increased migration pressure as a result of the tragic consequences of a catastrophic earthquake V Turkey this is of great concern to the government, which nevertheless notes with satisfaction the appeal of Ankara, which seems to have softened its tone towards Athens in recent days.

According to the information, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and the government were prepared for a “difficult” 2023 on the immigration front even before Egelados hit Turkey: attempts to illegally enter Greece have increased since autumn, with this phenomenon increasing in the first two months of the year not so much on Evros, where security measures are proving to be very effective, but on the country’s maritime borders, although there are significant achievements. However, as they say, now the situation may worsen.

Or, most likely, because of the extreme living conditions and poverty that a devastating earthquake is expected to cause even to a large part of the Turkish and Syrian population, many refugees and migrants may try to cross into Greece and through it to Europe.

Or because, as he has done in the past, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan will try to use immigration as a tool to get the most possible benefits from Europe.

Milestone

According to the same sources, the first two weeks of March may turn out to be decisive for the formation of further developments. Then the picture of how, with what speed and with what efficiency T. Erdogan will be able to cope with the huge problems left by the blow to Enceladus will be more “clear”. At the same time, the level of international assistance it can count on will start to become visible: already the Swedish Presidency and the Office of European Council President Charles Michel have organized a “donor conference” for Turkey in the making.

As they say, at the first stage, an acceleration of the payment of approximately 3 billion dollars, which it was decided to allocate to Ankara for work with refugees, could be launched, but the question is whether this particular step will be evaluated. enough for the Turkish president. Finally, the expected improvement in weather conditions, which will facilitate the passage of migrants and refugees to Greece, is expected to show whether a strong wave of pressure is indeed being created on the country’s maritime borders.

At the same time, Erdogan is expected to make a final decision on the timing of the elections in Turkey: whether they will take place on May 14, as he announced, whether they will be postponed to June, or whether he will try to “expand” the interpretation of the Turkish constitution. put them off for later. Also, if immigration is one aspect of Greek interest in the new landscape in Turkey after the Richter assassinations, then the second is that the huge ordeal faced by the neighboring country will affect bilateral relations.

Athens does not rule out that Erdogan will again try to use immigration as a lever of pressure on Europe.

Relations with the West

In Athens, the fact that Ankara has lowered its tone after the devastating earthquake was seen as a positive development, with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu even mentioning the prospect of a “new page” with Greece. However, given Mr. Erdogan’s highly unpredictable political nature and the enormous domestic pressure facing the Turkish president, it is clear that Mr. Mitsotakis is considering every possibility. A clearer picture of the approach and further actions of the Turkish side will be available in any case tomorrow, when US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken arrives in Athens after a visit to the Turkish capital.

The “good” – and arguably more common – scenario is that the Turkish President, given that he absolutely needs Western support to deal with the huge economic costs of natural disasters, opt for low-key, long-term tactics against Greece in the Aegean and East Mediterranean. Refuse, in other words, from the rhetoric of “typhoons” and “we will suddenly come one night.”

Such a development of events, of course, will be welcomed by the Greek side, which does not exclude the “revival” of bilateral contacts, mainly at the level of defense ministers, namely Nikos Panagiotopoulos and Hulusi Akara, while maintaining the communication channel between Eleni Bura and Ibrahim. tightly open. On the contrary, no summit meeting between Mr. Mitsotakis and Mr. Erdogan is expected before the elections in the two countries. First, it is clear that the Turkish President’s immediate priority is the hinterland of his country, and with the political fluidity created by the pre-election period in the two countries, the “four-four” was not going to have any tangible results, while it could also turn out to be counterproductive because of Erdogan’s well-known program.

April 9

Uncertainty about the timing of Turkey’s elections in no way alters Mr Mitsotakis’ political plan, which, barring something “extraordinary”, calls for the dissolution of parliament on March 10 and the holding of the first elections for a simple proportional parliament. April 9th. Government officials point out that if Ankara’s turn to low tone takes hold, then it will be a win, as the Greek elections will be held without external distractions, and the “swing” of the interim government, which is known to be formed between the first and second vote. In addition, any postponement of Turkey’s elections by a few months could ensure “calm waters” in the Aegean during the tourism-critical summer season.

On the contrary, Turkey’s prolonged political stalemate makes it impossible to have a meaningful discussion about overcoming the problems in Greek-Turkish relations, which might have been a realistic goal if Mr. Mitsotakis and Erdogan were given a fresh and strong new mandate to govern in the spring.