The way in which Natural disaster can affect international relations, has been a topic that has been occupying politicians, diplomats and scientists for more than twenty years. Since each case is different, just as the conditions that promote cooperation or lead to violence or conflict are different, generalizations are useless. In other words, a democratic country is more prone to natural disasters than a non-democratic one. At the same time, the motives of large external players to provide humanitarian assistance to the affected country or region are usually related to their common interests.

Greece’s immediate response after massive earthquakes hit it Turkey and the visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs Nikos Dendias in a neighboring country to create an initial climate of optimism in the public sphere that the two countries can again start the famous “catastrophe diplomacy”. An example from 1999 is still fresh. However, for such diplomacy to be effective, it is useful to combine it with existing foreign policy goals, rather than defining new ones. Turkey, until the day of the devastating earthquakes, seemed unwilling to have an honest dialogue with Greece about the continental shelf. The constant threats probably pointed to the exact opposite, and Athens had not yet received an invitation to the next round of research contacts. Will Turkey change its strategy after the recent tragedy? Hard.

However, Greece and Turkey deserve to take advantage of the situation, however bleak it may be, to reinforce the positive agenda of their discussions. Disaster prevention, building control, humanitarian assistance, search for debris, treatment of the wounded and psychological support for families are areas where cooperation is needed. Not only bilaterally, but also multilaterally. In a difficult phase of Euro-Turkish relations, there are proposals for cooperation that can be discussed at the initiative of Greece in Brussels.

In addition to the Greek-Turkish and possibly Euro-Turkish earthquakes in Turkey are of interest in terms of their political impact on the re-election of President Erdogan. It is too early to estimate, and much will depend on how humanitarian aid and various funds are distributed in the coming weeks. A Princeton University study following the 7.1 earthquake that struck Mexico City in 2017 shows that the ruling party benefited from the election. Let’s wait.

* Mr. Giorgos N. Tsogopoulos is Lecturer in International Relations at the European University of Nice (CIFE), Senior Fellow at ELIAMEP and the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (Israel).