In 1999 in “Argo” Greek-Turkish a new concept for that time was added on the occasion of two earthquakes, which, with a difference of about 20 days, first hit Nicomedia and then Athens. “diplomacy earthquakes“, as it was called at the time, caused an explosion of optimism, helped by the EU summit. Helsinki – gave Turkey status of a candidate country for accession.

Last Monday’s quakes, which, according to rough estimates by people aware of the events, could have cost the lives of 100,000 people in Turkey alone (for Syria, it is almost impossible to make a reliable estimate), aroused international interest, as well as being estimated in historical proportions.

No one in Athens believes that a repeat of the “second 99” is possible, but few would disagree with the assessment that in the coming months, Greek-Turkish relations will become much less of a priority for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whether it goes ahead with elections that were announced for May 14, or will eventually reschedule the date a little later, taking advantage of the current emergency conditions.

It is recalled that, based on the Turkish constitution, the state of emergency gives the President of Turkey the right to postpone elections for up to six months.

In any case, the current situation to some extent reduces the electoral significance of the Greek-Turkish factor in the calculations of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. In addition, it gave rise to some, albeit symbolic, contacts. The opportunity was given to activate channels at the highest level (Katerina Sakellaropoulou and the Prime Minister with Erdogan, Nikos Dendias with Cavusoglu), as well as use operational contacts to transfer humanitarian aid and rescue teams from Greece to Incirlik.

In addition, the first contacts of the new Turkish ambassador to Athens, the highly experienced Tsagatay Ercigesh, took place far from the place of the ongoing crisis of recent years. It’s still too early to tell if any additional channels will be activated in the coming months.

The situation in earthquake-hit Turkey puts Greek-Turkish language second in both Tayyip Erdogan’s priorities and Kyriakos Mitsotakis’s election planning.

It’s no secret that the almost parallel elections in Greece and Turkey created a headache not only for the prime minister’s office, but also for Washington.

After all, part of Foreign Minister Anthony Blinken’s planned visit to the region was part of an operation to send messages about the need for tension-free elections in Greek-Turkish. Undoubtedly, after the devastating earthquakes, the Blinken mission in the region will acquire other characteristics if its form does not change.

Experienced observers note that the reaction of the Erdogan government so far suggests that there is a very determined attempt to create the impression that the current catastrophe can be reversed with the classic AKP recipe of the last 20 years, a quick operation to rebuild the region in a way that creates some prospect of rebirth after destruction .

The reality is that in Turkey’s 20+ years of rule, Erdogan has never faced a crisis of this magnitude, especially in an area where he repeatedly intervened politically aggressively, arresting and imprisoning mayors, most notably (in terms of city size) who Diyarbakır . In practice, it is very difficult for anyone at this stage to predict how the political situation inside Turkey will develop in a month. Because it will also be used to judge Erdogan’s attitude towards foreign countries.

Competent sources said that in the near future the government will intensify efforts to send humanitarian or any other assistance necessary to support all those affected in the south and southeast of Turkey. Spreading solidarity at the regional level in order to normalize relations is not the exclusive prerogative of Greece. Much more aid has already been sent by Israel, a country that has also been at the center of attacks from Erdogan and his government officials in previous years.