20 parties took part in the 2019 parliamentary elections. Six of them managed to get into parliament. The final number of parties that will take part in the next elections is still unknown, it has yet to be announced by the Supreme Court. However, no big difference is expected in the number of parties that manage to get into parliament. While elections are held on a simple proportional basis, which would encourage more parties to enter, keeping the 3% cap as a condition is an insurmountable barrier to the “small” political spectrum.

The percentage that most smaller parties receive may not guarantee them access to the mainstream political scene, but their impact on the eventual formation of the next parliament is expected to be significant. An electoral law that goes into effect may not really help small parties, but it makes it harder to achieve self-sufficiency. This, after all, was one of the main criticisms received by SYRIZA when it achieved a change in the electoral law: it is not particularly interested in the real representation of the will of the people in parliament, but primarily in staying in it. play for power, even if she loses the election.

In the July 2019 elections, parties that did not make it into parliament managed to score a cumulative percentage of 8.07%. N.D. achieved self-confidence with 39.85%. In a hypothetical scenario where non-parliamentary parties win exactly the same percentage as the electoral law that will be in force in the upcoming elections, the first party needs to win 46.27% to ensure independence. An unrealistic percentage based on the polls, but also on the political reality of the last few years.

In the first round, non-parliamentarians can gain a percentage close to 10%, but in the second round the conditions will be different.

According to Pulse general manager Giorgos Arapoglu, the picture of the dynamics of small non-parliamentary parties currently looks like this: parties moving to the right and to the far right of the political spectrum are estimated to be able to collect a percentage of the order of 5%, not taking into account percentage of the Kasidiaris party, which according to opinion polls is about 2.5%. On the left side of the political spectrum, it is assumed that non-parliamentary parties will be able to gain a percentage of about 3%. If the scores are confirmed and they are all summed up, a percentage above 10% is collected. Of course, Mr. Arapoglou points out that experience shows that usually as elections get closer, the mood of relaxed voting recedes, which is expressed in limiting the power of small parties. This becomes even more pronounced in the second round of elections, when the polarization intensifies and the dilemmas for voters become more concrete. It is interesting, however, that at the moment, despite the fact that the second electoral contest is hardly counted, it does not show, judging by opinion polls, that there is always an atmosphere of relaxed voting that would favor “small”.

In the repeat elections, which will take place with a new electoral law and bonus seats for the first party, the rule is that the higher the overall percentage of non-parliamentary parties, the lower the self-reliance bar. It is indicative that if non-parliamentary parties gain 6% on the second Sunday, the first party wins independence with 38.5%. For 8% outside parliament, 37.9% is needed, and if the parties that will be excluded together receive 10%, then independence is achieved with 37.5%.

A very typical example of factors that can increase the power of small parties is the 2012 double elections. In May 2012, in the midst of an unprecedented economic and political crisis and in conditions especially favorable for anti-systemic voting, 32 parties took part in the elections. With a strengthened bonus system for the first party, seven parties managed to get into parliament, and three fell less than half a percentage point behind. In the re-elections, which were held in conditions of unprecedented polarization, seven parties again managed to get into parliament. However, the eighth-place party won only 1.59%.

The experience of 2012 is of particular importance for the fate of small parties, since even at that extremely special moment, politically favorable for the “small”, the impossibility of consensus and cooperation in broader schemes and the choice of the “lonely path” for most party formations, this did not allow them to take advantage of the benefits of time. When it is really impossible to cooperate in conditions favorable for passage to parliament, cooperation becomes even more difficult in conditions favorable to the strengthening of the “big”.