According to the latest data, elections in Greecefirst or second, may coincide with it Turkey scheduled for May 14th. How will they affect relations between the two countries? Turkish historian and director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute. Soner Chagaptaibelieves that we have seen such an escalation of rhetoric between Greece and Turkey since the Imian crisis. But this time the causes of the conflicts are more, more complex, more intractable, indicated in “K”.

For a long time, the two countries disagreed “about everything in the Aegean and, of course, about Cyprus,” Mr. Tsagaptai notes. “Recently, however, new layers have been added to the ‘traditional’ Greek-Turkish disputes – great power rivalry in Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean, energy exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean, sovereignty issues around Kastellorizo,” accent on “k”. And he adds: “Differences have shifted from the Aegean to the Mediterranean — the result will be a very tense pre-election period,” during which, he believes, politicians from both Turkey and Greece will sharpen their rhetoric. However, he does not believe that there is a possibility of war. “Of course, there is always the risk that air combat may end in the loss of aircraft or personnel.”

As for the results of the elections in Turkey, Mr. Çagaptay believes that this is “the crown – the letters.” “We did not hold early elections because, despite increasingly authoritarian control of institutions, the media and the suppression of the opposition, it was clear to Erdogan that he could not win – and there is still no certainty that he will win,” he said. He speaks. What will determine the outcome of the election is the economy, he stresses, which he calls “Turkey’s Achilles’ heel; she is behind Turkey’s dynamic foreign policy, drone exports, etc.” “If the economy does not recover, Erdogan cannot win. That is why, to some extent, he restored relations with the Persian Gulf monarchies, that is why he made this “gift” to the Saudis. Giving Riyadh jurisdiction over a court case that was directly linked to the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia,” he explains, referring to the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. “Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy, they will not condemn their monarch, so the case is closed – this means an influx of funds from Saudi Arabia and its allies.”

Recently, new layers have been added to the “traditional” Greek-Turkish disputes.

Even more important, he stresses, is the money from Russia, which he believes has helped the Turkish economy survive. The Russian president, the Turkish historian notes, “invested in Erdogan’s victory,” referring to the multi-billion dollar lump sum payment that came into the country from Russia for the Akyuyu nuclear power plant in southern Turkey. “Erdogan is betting on continued economic inflows from the Gulf states and Russia, so he will not sign economic sanctions against Russia, despite the fact that Turkey supports Ukraine militarily. He hopes that all this money will create the financial assistance he needs to win,” he emphasizes.

Mr. Chagaptay believes that “if Erdogan loses, Turkey’s relations with the West will reset. But even the re-election of Erdogan will still lead to this restructuring,” he says. “Erdogan has strong feelings for the West, but also knows that although he has tried to change Turkey’s identity both inside and outside the country, the country is economically tied to the European Union and international markets,” he says.

There will be, he believes, an attempt to normalize relations with Greece, but to the limit. As he points out, President Erdogan relies heavily on the personal chemistry he has with other leaders. And he cites the visit of Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to Washington as one of the reasons why, even after the “reform” of relations between the two countries, Erdogan remained somewhat alienated from Mr. Mitsotakis. “I think so”, says “K”“lack of personal chemistry will affect the full normalization of relations.”