2022 was more balanced in terms of political crises, but strongly marked by security crisis and economic crisis. The latest INSCOP survey shows a drop in the polls for the two major ruling parties, the PSD and the PNL, and a slight increase in the AUR.

According to a poll conducted in December, the PSD recorded the lowest figure this year at 31.5% (the figure was also recorded in September), the PNL at 20.2%, the AUR at 18.1% and the USR at 10.9%. All parties, except GOLD, were down compared to the previous month.

According to the INSCOP graph, which shows the evolution of political parties in the polls during 2021-2022, it is worth noting that the fall of the parties in power, in particular the PSD, is accompanied by the return of the AUR, amid the capitalization of dissatisfaction with the government, but also the fact that part of the social democratic electorate resonates with the rhetoric of George Simeon’s party.

“The purpose of this analysis was to show the evolution of political parties over the past two years. The graph made shows the zigzag evolution of all parties, which somehow overlaps with the many crises that followed, but also overlaps from the pandemic crisis to the political crisis of last fall, the war in Ukraine, the security crisis, the energy price crisis, inflation. Usually, when we look at the graphs, we see quite clear trends, but now, in this case, the only trend is that we don’t have a trend, a predictability,” INSCOP director Remus Štefureak told HotNews.ro.

As AUR showed the survey results

In 2021, the AUR recorded the moment when the political crisis overlapped with the pandemic crisis, when there was the lowest level of perception of the country’s direction in the last 20 years: only 11% of Romanians still saw a good direction for the country, while almost 90% saw the wrong direction.

This is a time when hundreds of people were dying in the midst of a pandemic crisis, and politicians were constantly arguing. On this fund, AUR capitalized quite strongly and effectively, growing and maintaining until the beginning of 2022.

In 2022, George Simion’s party entered with a percentage of more than 20% in the polls, in February it was evaluated in the perception of the electorate with the highest score in its history – 22.4%. AUR captured all the discontent of the electorate caused by the political crisis, the PSD-PNL alliance and the poor management of the pandemic, but at the same time it failed to maintain the perception of sympathizers.

Since the start of the war, the AUR has plummeted in the polls, a six percent loss that has been sustained throughout the year because of the party’s associations with Russian supporters. From 22.4% in February, Simeon’s party fell to 16.2%, but in June it began to recover in the polls amid the fuel price scandal.

In August, George Simeon’s “political” wedding drew attention to the party but failed to capture and sustain a comeback in the polls. This moment can be observed in September, when the AUR registers an increase in the polls from 17% to 22%, but fails to maintain the percentage and falls to 16% in November, according to the INSCOP chart.

• “AUR grew against the background of crises, on a negative vote and at a time when everything is relatively stable and calm, it is quite difficult to qualify. On the other hand, the main uncertainty, as well as the main source of risk, could be extremely high volatility among the population if a new crisis occurs in 2024, which we cannot foresee now,” explains Stefureak.

PSD loses 5 percent in the polls, but remains at the top of the electorate’s preferences

PSD remained the first party of electoral choice, but lost significant percentages. When the Social Democrats came into government, internal polls showed them to be around 40%, and after almost a year in government, the Social Democrats now have around 35%.

According to INSCOP polls, the PSD is estimated at 34.9% in November, a percentage similar to internal polls commissioned by the PSD, Social Democratic sources told HotNews.ro.

It should be noted that the Social Democrats conduct a survey of the electorate’s perception every month, but since September the party’s leadership has not publicly released a single survey. PSD began to register a decline of several percent with the onset of the energy crisis, which brought with it rising prices and inflation. As for the economic crisis, the Social Democrats had a brief moment of image change with the resignation of Vasyl Dink as the head of the Ministry of Defense.

According to Hotnews.ro sources, in November, according to internal polls, the PSD registered a percentage of 35% in the perception of the electorate, while PNL was rated with 21%, AUR 17% and USR 11%.

• “PSD has risen but also fallen in the polls. PSD has a problem, because part of its electorate works on the principle of connecting vessels with part of the AUR electorate. We often see that a decrease in PSD can be found in an increase in AUR and vice versa. We are talking only about part of the electorate of the two parties,” says Remus Stefuriak.

• Avangarde poll: PSD remains first in vote preference, followed by PNL by a long distance / AUR falls one percent, USR steady

PNL and USR failed to convince

PNL and USR recorded a rather sharp decline, especially in the context of last year’s political crisis, and in 2022 they failed to convince the electorate.

Against the background of the ruling PSD and the lack of communication of political decisions, the PNL remained in the shadow of the ruling partners during the year. According to the latest INSCOP study, PNL is 20%. Domestically, liberals say their polls put them somewhere between 22-23%.

MCV’s rise in the fall has preserved their remaining percentages, but the failure of the Shegen could affect their image. “The Schengen effect will be more clearly visible in the January measurements of whether it has influenced the evolution of the ruling parties. We will see if it was just a momentary emotional impact or something more,” said Remus Štefuriak.

In the fall, USR rose slightly. During 2022, they did not exceed 10%, but the onset of the economic crisis in the fall, communication and attacks on the Government brought them visibility and a small increase in the polls.

What does the evolution of parties look like in 2022

• Remus Štefureak, director of INSCOP: Looking ahead to next year, the only trend is that we don’t really have a trend, which shows us a lot of uncertainty. It cannot be said that one party will definitely go up, and the other – down. As a rule, in the middle of the cycle, parties in power begin to decline, and opposition parties begin to grow slightly. In this case, we do not see a very clear evolution, on the contrary, there is a lot of uncertainty, the numbers show quite clearly, so we cannot predict that the parties in power will definitely lose next year or that the parties in the opposition will definitely grow.”

It should be noted that the INSCOP survey, on the basis of which the graph of the evolution of political parties is built, is conducted on the basis of a sample of 1,070-1,100 respondents using the CATI method. For the December survey, the data was collected partly before and partly after the Schengen moment, says INSCOP director Remus Štefureak.

• Big moves and pawns that changed the political scene in 2021 / Who won and who lost