What marks did the wiretapping leave on the government? How big is the “damage” and what quality indicators did it affect? Has the collapse of the prime minister’s cabinet reached the threshold and how much can the situation change before the elections?

The latest Pulse poll by SKAI captured something interesting. For the first time, the question arises, in the answer of Alexis Tsipras, the percentage is higher than that of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. In particular, the leader of the official opposition to the question “who of the party leaders is better at dealing with transparency issues” gains a percentage of 28% compared to 27% of Kyriakos Mitsotakis, and Nikos Androulakis gains 12%. The answer “none of the three” gains 26%.

Giorgos Arapoglou, managing director of Pulse who conducted the study, explains to K that no reliable conclusions can be drawn from this particular finding. This, he says, is an area that has not been measured independently in the past, and therefore there is no benchmark. He adds that typically government parties and respective prime ministers do not register a high percentage of such issues, as management always puts pressure on areas of transparency due to wear and tear caused by governance.

In this case, in fact, it was preceded by the Patsis case, as well as other minor or larger issues related to transparency, which inevitably affect the government. As for the question “how much damage has the wiretapping case done to New Democracy”, it seems that the findings so far are positive for the government. Other than the above figure, the overall image of the government has not been significantly affected, while the issue of wiretapping does not appear to have affected the prime minister’s personal image, which retains its distinction from the ax head. fitness opposition. Characteristically, in critical areas such as development, the economy and Greek-Turkish relations, Mr. Mitsotakis maintains a significant lead over his opponent.

The conclusion is that the problem of wiretapping alone cannot cause changes in the political scene, but in combination with other problems, it can multiply the normal degradation of the government that has appeared since last year in September, losing a total of 3.5 points , from 36.5% to 33%.

So far, this does not appear to have affected the prime minister’s significant lead over his opponent.

A recent study by Prorata captured the other side of eavesdropping, showing that the problem has an impact, even if it’s not visible to the naked eye, but hidden. It is characteristic that in the last measurement of the company, among those who ask for the replacement of Demiri, there are also 41% of N.D. voters, 76% of PASOK voters, 75% who declared themselves indecisive, 77% of the centrists, 50% of the center-right and 38% of the right, which shows that the issue of transparency permeates the entire society horizontally.

An experienced political science professor who knows both the polls that will see the light of day and the moving measurements that nothing is known about tells K that the wiretap case has two major implications for the government. First, it “shrinks the space of neutrality and tolerance towards the ruling party.” In other words, there are citizens who have a positive attitude towards power, but at the same time do not belong to the narrow core of the New Democracy. “This percentage is still there, but it is decreasing,” the professor says, adding that this is a problem that the ruling party must solve in order to achieve self-sufficiency.

The second main conclusion is that such issues traditionally concern the centrist public, which prioritizes high issues of institutions and transparency. “This poses an additional challenge for the government, as Mr. Mitsotakis’s confidence in his own abilities runs primarily through this audience.” And then why in public opinion polls and in most of the qualitative data of ND. and Kyriakos Mitsotakis still lead by a significant margin? The professor notes that the answer must be sought in SYRIZA. “Ax. Opposition is still a negative stereotype that is not easy for citizens to approach.” SYRIZA and Alexis Tsipras “do not show the ability to manage government errors even at the level of vocabulary”, which, as the professor says in K, is a “political weapon “.

In conclusion, the problem of eavesdropping is not negligible for the government, and it shapes the climate, even if it does not register in all indicators, and, as he points out, “it would be a great mistake for the government to underestimate it.” In the analysis he gives in “K”, the professor adds that studies abroad have shown something else that needs to be taken into account. The wiretapping case rallied and made the opposition more aggressive. Studies have shown that when voters in one party “shout more” about what they will vote for in the next election, they typically add 2 to 3 percentage points to their party shortly before the election. This practically means that SYRIZA, if it is now at the level of 25%-26%, will definitely be 3 points higher in the elections.

Eavesdropping issues have been of great concern to the Maximos Palace of late as “ongoing” investigations focus on these areas. The government believes that the wiretapping problem did not cause him undue harm, but it needs to be “immediately isolated” so as not to drag other sectors with it, in the logic of the “combined damage” mentioned above. Characteristically, in the dimensions that reach Herodos Attica, there are two areas where Alexis Tsipras is at arm’s length from Kyriakos Mitsotakis. These are questions of transparency, where the difference is 6 points (38%-32%), and questions of freedom and rights, where the two political leaders have a difference of only three points (41% vs. 38%).

However, apart from that, as government sources note in K, the difference between the two political leaders is “chaotic”, so the prime minister constantly repeats that the dilemma of the next elections will be “Mitsotakis or Tsipras”. In this context, it is planned to hold elections in the spring of next year, when the issue will be resolved and the difficulties of winter will be over.