What are Romania’s chances of being accepted into Schengen at the JAI Council in December? Now no one can give a 100% answer.

Optimism remains moderate at government level thanks to a positive report from the European Commission recommending the abolition of the MCV, which is central to the objections of the Netherlands. Although a second assessment mission, invited by the Netherlands, ended last week and the report is “very positive”, government sources in Bucharest say, and talks with Sweden and Austria leave room for good news.

At the moment, several things are being decided, one of which is the possible separation of Romania from Bulgaria.

How it was agreed with Holland, Sweden and Austria

The Netherlands was the first country to object to Romania’s accession to Schengen. The news was not well received in Bucharest, given that there was a previous diplomatic agreement that the Netherlands would not object if Germany and France gave the green light. But it still happened.

In a domestic context where solving the refugee problem is of great importance, the Dutch parliament, where the government has a slim majority, made clear its reservations about Romania joining Schengen.

There was a positive evaluation mission, but the Dutch did not participate, and this was an additional reason.

But last week, on November 17, a new assessment mission took place at the request of the Netherlands. It had three dimensions: data protection, visas and judicial cooperation in criminal matters, and was attended by experts from the Netherlands as well as from Sweden, another country that raised objections.

“The report of the new mission is very positive. The Dutch expert did not participate in the visit organized for Bulgaria, which shows the preference of the Netherlands for Romania over Bulgaria. (…) The conclusion is that the Netherlands cannot delay a positive decision for Romania. As for Bulgaria, it is no longer Romania’s problem,” government sources close to the matter said.

Approaches also took place at the level of the president, MEPs, Romania received significant support from the US, as well as France, according to the cited sources.

“We are waiting for the formalization of the Dutch decision, which must go through the parliament and the government. We cannot say 100% that he will support joining Schengen, but this is the direction in which we are moving,” government sources said.

As for Sweden, things are a bit calmer in Bucharest, where the parliamentary vote is based on disability in its first action by the Stockholm government, also a minority. The government consists of right-wing parties, and the social democrats in the opposition united with the extreme ones and in the justice committee voted against the proposal to expand Schengen, the main reason for which was that there were no consultations and preliminary negotiations with the government.

According to the cited sources, Bucharest found allies in this matter in the heads of diplomacy of Luxembourg and Finland, who have good relations with the Swedish social democrats. There was also a lobby at the level of MEPs.

“The Social Democrats consider Sweden’s relations with Romania as strategic relations. We are awaiting an impact analysis from the Swedish government,” government sources said, given that a vote in the Stockholm parliament on the government’s powers on the JAI Board is due next term.

As for Austria, the latest country to voice its interior minister’s opposition to Romania’s accession to Schengen, “this position is a signal to the European Commission for positive communication” directed against Bucharest, according to Bucharest officials.

“They believe that the European Commission is more concerned about migrants arriving through the south, and the concerns of Austria are not taken into account. We sent these things to the European Commission, and an extraordinary meeting of the JAI will be held on Friday, the issue of migration along the Balkan route is also on the agenda,” government sources said.

Also, Interior Minister Lucian Bode is traveling to Austria on Wednesday for talks with his counterpart Gerhard Karner, who said last week that his country would oppose an expansion of the Schengen area because the system “doesn’t work”.

Is it possible to separate Romania from Bulgaria?

To this question, the officials from Bucharest answer that “this is the way things are”, claiming that Bulgaria insisted on connecting with Romania in the Schengen file, Bucharest does not feel uncomfortable in the option of separation: “If we enter Schengen sooner, the border with Bulgaria will be external”

The main focus of the Romanian authorities is how the vote in the JAI Council will take place. More precisely, what will be put to the vote. The options may include Croatia and as a package Romania and Bulgaria or Croatia and Romania, and another term should be proposed for Bulgaria.

The reports that the Netherlands and Sweden will give in the next period remain important in context.