The two events of the past few days have once again served as a painful realization of the stability of very sensitive regional balance sheets and the rapid volatility that characterizes even tried-and-true bilateral relationships. The first one was new Turkish-Libyan memorandum and the second visit Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz in Ankarawhile earlier his move to Kalamata had been cancelled, the cancellation, which he made sure to clarify, was due to “technical reasons”.

From the architecture of regional security that Greece managed to create thanks to significant efforts and significant diplomatic successes in previous years, with the tripartite and not only, the Turkish variable as a problematic factor is gradually being removed. The region is dominated by “realpolitik” approaches, and power is gradually relegated to the second and third place in society.

The biggest threats come from Tripoli, where Ankara is active. now seeks to turn Libya into a protectorate. All international actors in practice recognize (USA, EU, France, Germany, etc.) that the interim Prime Minister of the Government of Tripoli, Abdul Hamid el-Dbeiba, signs agreements that do not correspond to the temporary mandate given to him, positions are perceived as carte blanche by Ankara which is deepening its military presence in western Libya.

There are two concerns in various circles in Athens about the degree of … mimicry of the Tripoli government.

The first concerns the possibility of submitting the outer boundaries of the continental shelf to the UN, with the “measurement” of the coordinates of the Turkish-Libyan memorandum.

The second problem is focus. in the assessment that Libya may declare a continental shelf to the west of Crete, similar to the Turkish-Libyan east of the island. It is recalled that the Turkish-Libyan agreement was drawn up with the expectation that Turkey objects to the shores with Libya.

In the western part, the Tripoli government may declare a continental shelf, based on the theory that the middle line runs between the coasts of Libya and… the Peloponnese, which will lead to the transfer of the border somewhere in… Gavdos. As is known, the continental shelf, in the absence of a bilateral agreement, is determined by the median line from the underlying coasts, which, according to the Greek interpretation, are the coasts of Crete and Libya and which were roughly described (without exact coordinates) by Maniatis. 2011 amendment.

The danger of declaring Tripoli a continental shelf with the theory that the middle line runs between Libya and… the Peloponnese, a move that will bring the border somewhere in Gavdos!

Turkey’s military involvement in Libya is a major thorn in Ankara’s attempt to cooperate with Cairo in its charm operation in the Eastern Mediterranean. Despite Turkey’s occasional diplomatic assurances to Egypt about what Ankara sees as the “stabilizing” role of its military presence in Libya, mistrust still lingers in Cairo.

Greek-Egyptian relations remain at a high level, which does not end with military exercises, but also continues in international forums. Greece’s pro-Egyptian stance in European Union discussions, which often contain outbursts against Cairo, is such an example.

Of Greece’s regional relations, relations with Israel remain the most strategic, despite the visible and now public efforts of the outgoing government in Jerusalem to improve relations with Ankara. While there is a wait-and-see attitude as elections take place on Tuesday, November 1 that could lead to a government reshuffle, there are signals coming from Jerusalem from all sides that foreign policy will not change significantly. Of interest is the statement by Ankara’s Benny Gantz on Thursday that Israel and Turkey can build bridges with Greece and Cyprus. Despite Gantz’s public statements, well-informed sources told K that the visit to Ankara is connected with a discussion of Hamas activities on Turkish soil, as well as the need to reduce its support from organizations that are in one way or another connected with Turkish interests.

On the purely Greek-Israeli side, in addition to numerous weapons programs to strengthen the Armed Forces with Israeli systems, cooperation is growing at the intelligence level. LNG and regasification facilities remain a priority in the energy sector and EastMed is on the table.

Israeli-Lebanese EEZ

An interesting aspect of the indirect, but successful, tacit nuances of the Greek involvement is also related to the Israeli-Lebanese agreement on the delimitation of the EEZ. In early summer, the arrival of Energean’s floating storage and offloading facility (FPSO), representing Greek interests, prompted Lebanon to challenge Israel’s ownership of the Karis field. Hezbollah publicly threatened to strike the floating installation if production began without protecting Lebanese interests, prompting Israeli backlash. Meanwhile, the United States intervened through special envoy Amos Hochstein. In practice, after the deal was finally signed on Thursday, Lebanon recognized Israeli ownership of Karis, from which Energean began producing gas on Wednesday, and Israel recognized Lebanese sovereignty over much of the Qana field, which is in the disputed zone and will be used by France’s Total.