Watching her moves Turkey in the international environment, its convulsive hypermobility is manifested. If one day Ottoman Empire was the “Great Patient”, whom the great powers threw into her head so that tsarist Russia would not reach the Mediterranean Sea, today Turkey imagines itself to be an unpredictable actor who is not easy to “read”. But is it?

OUR Turkish President for years he pursued a foreign policy that turned Turkey against almost all of its key states. Eastern Mediterranean And her Middle East. I will not expand on this issue, since the details are already known. However, this attitude created a serious problem in Ankara, mainly because it enabled Greek diplomacy to successfully fill in the gaps created by Turkish narcissism.

But the war in Ukraine, the conflict of transition to a new form of systemic balance of power, which I wrote about in my previous article here, has solidified some old facts that now need to be seen in a new light. This data is related to the strategic role of Greece, again as a front-line state against Russia, as well as to the network of initiatives that Athens is called upon to take, as a key factor in building a new energy structure of the world. EU. For Turkey, doubling Greece’s role is a major concern, largely because of the way Ankara has always pursued its zero-sum foreign policy. What she loses strengthens her opponent and vice versa. Here it is worth answering the question why Turkey chose Greece as its opponent? Some will immediately point out that Greece is a convenient opponent. This simplification comes from the belief that the international system consists of small or large states and that the former obey the will of the latter without the possibility of changing the “Thucydian destiny”.

Of course, even in the 21st century, this division is no longer a reality, since the dividing line is drawn between reasonable and less reasonable states, and even the richest Turkish “analyst”, who predicts proud victories in Aegean day and night, knows that the blow that Turkey will take militarily, economically, and diplomatically, if the deal leads to a direct break with Greece, will be out of control for the mechanisms of the deep state.

However, at a high level of strategy, the reason Ankara is behaving this way with regard to Greece and Cyprus is that it hopes that by increasing the pressure on Athens, Nicosia and Washington, we will sit down to the negotiating table with relief. bridged the gap in understanding of cooperation in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey is putting into practice its latest strategy card, the “Madman Doctrine”, promoting the maxim that you either go along with its whims, no matter how absurd, or conflict will ensue. Of course, from planning to implementation, there are realities that are not in favor of Ankara. Turkish national unity is at an extremely low level, the Greek hard power and the high morale of the Greeks worry Turkish analysts, while even the most ignorant can understand that whoever opens the door of the lunatic asylum first will not only kill the world in the region, but also the south the eastern wing of NATO with what it will mean for the present and future state that will take such a step.

While I oppose the “don’t mess with me” foreign policy doctrine, I maintain that Athens is neither under pressure nor at a disadvantage to Ankara. The pressure is on Turkey, as the ontological question “who will you go with and who will you leave with” is now a daily question for the state and its citizens, so one should not rush to provide an internal decompression solution in terms that will not interfere with them. primarily to ensure the primary national interest, i.e. maintaining national integrity and enhancing the country’s role at the level of transatlantic strategic participation and ensuring an energy presence in the Eastern Mediterranean.

* Mr. Spiros N. Litsas is Professor of International Relations Theory at the University of Macedonia.