The daily statements of Turkish officials against Greece cause justified concern. It is the first time that her territorial claims in the Aegean are described so clearly in a public debate in a neighboring country. At the same time, there are hints of a military occupation of the Greek islands if some vague demands from Ankara are not met.

Turkey has entered an endless pre-election period in which polarization and suspicion prevail. It is often said that the Erdogan regime is fighting a battle for its political survival. Despite low popularity figures, the Turkish president remains dominant within his country. The opposition is fragmented and has yet to come up with an alternative plan. In other words, the political situation cannot fully explain Turkey’s aggressive rhetoric. So, is this a prelude to war or acrostic diplomacy trying to intimidate Athens?

The Russian invasion showed that we had entered a new era. The constants of the liberal order began to change. Few believed that a major interstate war could break out again in Europe. Therefore, no one should rule out the scenario of a Turkish offensive. However, the Turkish leadership lacks knowledge and experience.

In recent years, Greece has been modernized diplomatically and especially militarily. Deepening defense relations with the United States, close military cooperation with Israel and the conclusion of a defense agreement with France create an umbrella of protection for the Greek side. However, the most important thing is that the balance of military power is gradually shifting in favor of the Greek armed forces.

In the air, the technological advantage of the Air Force lays the foundation for our air supremacy in the Aegean. At sea, the Navy continues to excel with its submarines and missiles. On land, the number of tanks, artillery and air defense systems clearly exceeds those of the enemy. In addition, the morale of the troops is high and there is great vigilance. All this is more or less known to the Turkish leadership.

Greek-Turkish differences cannot be resolved as long as the Turkish leadership treats Greece as a country with limited sovereignty.

No rational leadership will start a war that it cannot win. War cannot easily break out because of misunderstanding. We can trust Robert Jervis’ theory of attack and defense, which states that war can be prevented if defense gains an advantage over attack. The most important variable is the technology available to each party. In the potential theaters of operations in Western Thrace and the Eastern Aegean, there are no military conditions for a successful Turkish operation. Therefore, objectively, the probability of a Greco-Turkish war is small.

In fact, the statements of Turkish officials are part of an extreme diplomacy with a dual purpose. First, Ankara is trying to blackmail the US government in order to get some kind of benefits (for example, the acquisition of F-16s, the invasion of Syria). He knows that Washington is deeply concerned about the unity of NATO at a time when the Russian threat is resurfacing. At the same time, there is pressure on the EU. to reconsider their negative attitude towards Turkey. Ankara’s invitation to participate in the upcoming meeting of the European Political Community, which will be held in Prague, is not accidental. Brussels is trying to soften Turkish aggression through soft cooperation from Ankara.

Secondly, the rhetorical attacks on Greece create a negative psychological background for decision makers in Athens. Greece’s foreign policy has adapted to the need to counter Turkish aggression, but therefore lacks room for greater extraversion. What’s worse is that an unrecognized fear is being created to maintain peace and security in our region. Without firing a shot, the Turkish leadership is trying to force Athens into negotiations that will undermine Greece’s sovereign interests in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean.

It’s time to see the truth face to face, without ideological or personal anchors. Greek-Turkish differences cannot be resolved as long as the Turkish leadership treats Greece as a country with limited sovereignty. The confrontation with the neighboring country is not of a momentary nature, but has acquired a structural character. Under these conditions, the Greek side has few options.

In any case, an inter-party consensus becomes an indispensable condition for an effective fight against Turkish revisionism. Otherwise, there is a risk of instrumentalization of the threat for domestic political reasons. In these critical moments, no one can put himself above the country.

* Mr. Manos Karagiannis is Associate Professor of International Security at King’s College London and the University of Macedonia.