Much has been written and said since then. announcement of the ENI-Total joint venture for the discovery of a natural gas field in block 6 of the Cyprus EEZ. We read about mammoths and giant deposits, about one of the world’s largest discoveries, which can rightly cause bewilderment and feed expectations that do not correspond to reality. In order to bring order to the discussion about the potential of Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean in general, it is useful to assess the current data and the prospects they create.

Initial field discoveries require confirmation drilling and at the end of the day the initial estimate can be refuted or confirmed in situ or improved. After all, their disposal depends on many factors, such as depth, seabed morphology, associated production costs, as well as the collection of additional deposits in the immediate vicinity, so that it would be more efficient to create a station that could receive and use any volumes for commercial purposes. Other parameters are added to the equation, such as commercial value in case of pumping, connection to a pipeline network or liquefaction terminal and, of course, provision of customers. Thanks to discoveries on the Cypriot continental shelf with volumes close to 400 billion cubic meters, Nicosia can build within six years (2029) a liquefaction terminal that will export 15 billion cubic meters. for 20-25 years to international markets. In fact, the specified terminal will be able to receive additional volumes from the second phase of the development of the Israeli Leviathan, adding 5-7 billion cubic meters. annually. In this case, the contribution to European needs would be 1/8 of current imports from Russia, but it is still not negligible, especially since the market supply will depend not on third parties, but on the EU member state.

So, based on what has been discovered so far in the Eastern Mediterranean region, the largest deposit is the Egyptian Zhor with 30 trillion. cubic feet (tcf), followed by the Israeli Leviathan at 16 trillion. cubic feet, also Israeli Tamar is estimated at 8-10 trillion cubic meters. drilling are finally tested, the production potential of Cyprus as a whole will be from 17 to 22 trillion. cubic foot. Russia supplies Europe with 160 billion cubic meters per year, which is two and a half times the estimated capacity of the Kronos field on block 6 of the Cyprus continental shelf. Iran, although it needs to upgrade its infrastructure to increase production due to sanctions, produces an estimated amount of Venus and Saturn combined per year. If we add up the projected production potential of the three largest fields in the Eastern Mediterranean, then they are equal to two years of production in the United States and three years in Russia. Adding up all the potential sources in the region, including Lebanon, Gaza and Syria, the estimated potential (122 trillion cubic feet) is equivalent to five and seven years of production in the US and Russia, respectively.

What does the discovery of a new field in the Cyprus EEZ mean?

With this in mind, although globally the Eastern Mediterranean does not cause dramatic changes, it may well contribute to the security of supplies to Europe. And it is surprising why the European Union shows limited interest in including the region in its energy planning. In particular, on June 17, 2022, he signed a memorandum of understanding with Egypt and Israel on the allocation of volumes of 5-7 billion cubic meters. liquefied natural gas, but until 2030, since after that natural gas consumption will be reduced to meet the commitment to climate neutrality. Therefore, Brussels turns a blind eye to its obvious need to increase the share of natural gas in its energy mix and, given the decision on zero imports from Russia and given the inability of Norway to make a meaningful contribution after 2030, refuses to implement new projects through which they will supply natural gas from especially unreliable renewable sources and hydrogen to cover their energy needs. Thus, investment in new natural gas fields is discouraged, resulting in when the EU needs it to be unavailable. The companies and banks that will finance the projects are hesitant due to the wrong signals being sent by the Europeans, given the risk of Turkish aggression in the case of Cyprus. Thus, if the EU does not immediately rethink its policy and give little or no support to Nicosia in its quest to exploit its mineral wealth (by securing a proportionate share of the Turkish Cypriots), then the opportunity for Cyprus to become a component of the European energy equation will be missed. lost. Recourse to the calendar (referring to the unresolved Cyprus issue) will deprive Europe of a reliable alternative source of energy and turn the Eastern Mediterranean towards a thirsty Asian market.

* Mr. Konstantinos Filis is Associate Professor at the American College of Greece. Presents the show “Greece in (her) world”, which is broadcast on the ANT1+ platform. Under his leadership, the book “The Future of History” (Papadopoulos editions) is published.