OUR Erdogan will do everything possible to prevent the energy project without her Turkey in the Aegean sea, but this does not mean that it will come to a physical confrontation with Greece. This score Analyst of the European Council on Foreign Relations – ECFR, former journalist in Turkey Asli Aydindasbas said in “K”, which stands on the parameter of nationalist reflexes in her country, especially in the run-up to the 2023 elections. Turkey’s president is losing elections in the polls, but “everything in Turkey can change in a few months.” In addition, there are fears that the elections will be annulled if the difference is small. Aydindasbas emphasizes that Erdogan likes to “play” with the US and Russia at the same time, but this strategy is costly for Turkey. He also notes that the Turkish president is counting on financial benefits from his privileged relationship with Putin, seeking support for his re-election. She conveys the climate from Turkey to Greece like this: “Every TV window will say that Greece is violating Turkish airspace and is trying to trap Turkey off its coasts, adjusting Western support for its interests.”

Erdogan wants to be in the Eastern Mediterranean energy equation – and seems determined to prevent a project that bypasses Turkey. To achieve his goal, he seems to be aiming for a dynamic attitude. Having said that, I don’t think Erdogan is looking for a physical confrontation with Greece or the annexation of Cyprus in an election year. He may welcome the tension as it fuels nationalism, but he doesn’t want to go far enough to push for real conflict or war in the Aegean or the Eastern Mediterranean. Ultimately, I believe Erdogan wants an Eastern Mediterranean settlement that would include Turkey and Cyprus – an energy-sharing agreement.

“This balancing act is a game that the Turkish president is very comfortable in – pitting Russia and the US against each other and trying to get economic or political concessions from both sides. Because her relationship with the West is so fragile, she uses her relationship with Russia as a tool—a veiled threat to the West—to show that Turkey has options. But along the way, Erdogan hopes to extract material benefits or political concessions. This is a high-stakes gamble, and one that has cost Turkey dearly in terms of being labeled an “unreliable ally” and rejected by Western defense architecture. Turkey was excluded from the US F35 program due to the purchase of Russian C400s. But over the years, Ankara has become more dependent on Russia for Syria and natural gas. Recently, Turkey has also been trying to expand its economic ties with Russia, hoping to capitalize on Western sanctions by giving Moscow a lifeboat. This is a fraudulent deal, but it helps Erdogan financially in the run-up to the elections.

Erdogan may welcome the tension as it fuels nationalism, but he doesn’t want it to go far enough to spur real conflict or brawl.

– It is not yet clear who will be the opposition candidate. CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu seems to want this very much. However, there is no consensus within the opposition camp. Others, such as the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, rank higher than Kilicdaroglu in the polls, but they also do not appear yet. For now, Erdogan’s numbers are low, lower than any of his potential rivals. But elections are still a long way off, and things could change in Turkey in a few months.

“There is always a fear that we will have a repeat of local elections – canceled – if the results are too close. But here it is generally accepted that if the gap is large enough, i.e. 3 points or more, it is difficult to foul. If it’s a tight race, then all those bets are off.

– The Turkish media and bureaucracy are controlled by nationalist ideology, and it is easy for them to say that Turkey is always right, that it is always offended, that its neighbors are actually its enemies, and so on. And that’s what happens in the end. The media will tell every window that Greece is violating Turkish airspace, trying to trap Turkey off its coast, adjusting Western support to suit its interests. Thus, citizens naturally feel that Turkey is being greatly offended and treated unfairly. I’m sure it’s the same story in Greece. What we need is a different climate, more than anything else. Turkey and Greece are moving towards a lose-lose situation. Until they can sit down and discuss problems, there will be no winners in either the Aegean or the Mediterranean. More than anything, the political climate matters. And we need a different climate. There will always be bilateral problems. But if we get to the point where it is possible to have a discussion, then our population will understand that we are all in the same boat, that this is not a game of mutual money, and that Turkey and Greece can live peacefully side by side.