In the event of a global economic crisis and a further deterioration of the geopolitical situation, the Russian economy could return to growth within one percent no earlier than 2025, follows the outline of the main directions of the unified state monetary policy (ONDKP) for 2023, published by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on Friday, August 12 -2025 years.

“For the Russian economy, the implementation of the global crisis, simultaneously with the deterioration of the geopolitical context, will significantly complicate structural adjustment and adaptation to new conditions. continue, and only in 2025 growth is possible – no more than 1%”, says the document.

“Due to rising geopolitical tension, some of the newly established ties in 2022 may break,” the conclusion reads. At the same time, it is noted that the consequences will be especially strong for intermediate and investment imports, in addition, technical cooperation and investment programs will be complicated. “Both the level and potential growth rates of the Russian economy will decrease”, predicts the Central Bank in the event of a global crisis scenario.

Basic and optimistic scenarios

The Central Bank’s base scenario assumes that the dynamics of Russian GDP will enter the positive zone in 2024. According to the bank’s forecasts, the Russian economy in 2024 can grow from 1.5 to 2.5% – then it will decrease from 4 to 4 6% in 2022 and from 1 to 4% in 2023. In 2025, growth should remain at the level of 1.5-2.5%.

There is also an optimistic scenario for the development of the Russian economy in the ONDKP project, which implies an acceleration of the recovery of domestic demand with an unchanged geopolitical framework and the preservation of current trends in the global economy. In this scenario, Russia’s GDP could increase as early as 2023.