In the face of devastating international events, Turkey approves its own ratio of interest to drilling “Abdul Hamid Khan» in its waters Eastern Mediterranean. By acquaintance withblue motherland“Ret. Admiral Yaichi, Turkey needs to take such a decisive step to make it a player in the evolving Mediterranean geostrategic game.

Will it move in areas of interest to Greece, from the 26th to the 30th meridian, that is, from the illegal Turkish-Libyan demarcation of 2019 to the point explored by Oruch Reis in 2020? Greece, as always in solidarity with the Republic of Cyprus, is also interested in the possibility of drilling by Turkey as Cyprus EEZ and in disputed undemarcated areas from which it illegally collected seismic data.

It is preliminary noted that in the absence of demarcation by agreement, both exploration and drilling unilaterally are not allowed by maritime law. These actions constitute an exclusive right, which, however, is exercised in certain areas of the continental shelf, which must be demarcated by states by agreement or by court order. Both are constituent, not declarative, ensure the sovereign rights of each state and prevent a fait accompli.

In non-demarcated areas of the continental shelf/EEZ, unilateral action is not allowed, instead there is an obligation to enter into a demarcation agreement or seek a judicial settlement. Unilateral exploration for hydrocarbons is not permitted, but does not entail the international liability that arises from unilateral drilling, since the natural destruction of the seabed causes irreparable damage.

Any offshore drilling throughout the island is a flagrant violation of the sovereignty of the Republic of Cyprus. Similarly, it represents a flagrant violation of sovereign rights to drill on a demarcated continental shelf. According to paragraph 2 of article 77 of UNCLOS-82, within the continental shelf, the sovereign rights of the coastal state are exercised exclusively, and no state can act within this zone without its consent.

Further drilling will be illegal if undertaken in an area that Turkey has demarcated from the occupied self-proclaimed “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus”. Such an agreement is void as the Turkish Cypriot entity does not exist under international law.

In the absence of an announcement or NAVTEX, when looking for possible Turkish drilling moves now or later, it is useful to consider the logical sequence of actions. Drilling follows survey, so areas where seismic data collection has been completed are candidates.

So, here are the possible scenarios in which Turkey can start drilling:

• First, it is the possibility of drilling in the area north of the occupied territories on the basis of a supposed license from their regime, as stated by Ibrahim Kalin.

Here are the possible scenarios under which Turkey could start drilling.

• The second is located in the maritime zone of Karpasia and Famagusta, which may violate the sovereignty of the Republic of Cyprus.

• Third is the possibility of drilling in the southeastern EEZ of Cyprus, which has been demarcated in an agreement with Israel and Lebanon (which it has not ratified) and is licensed. As part of this, Turkey, as Kalin said, is acting with the permission of the occupied.

• Fourth, it is the possibility of drilling in the EEZ, delimited by agreement with Egypt, part of the licensed offshore blocks of which Turkey has been challenging since 2011 (for example, blocks 5, 6, 7). The dispute is based on the hypothetical drawing of a median line between Turkey and Egypt, with the exception of Cyprus. In 2012, Turkey tried, by offering a larger continental shelf, to cooperate with Egypt in order to terminate the agreement with Cyprus. But it became clear that no one canceled the agreement with the Muslim Brotherhood either.

• The fifth could be drilling in areas between the 28th and 30th meridian, where Oruts Reis explored in 2020.

• This scenario – so far unlikely – concerns a Turkish-Libyan demarcation mediated by a Greek-Egyptian EEZ agreement. If Turkey behaves rationally, it will not choose it for drilling in the absence of seismic data.

Turkey is expected to continue drilling around Cyprus. It will seek to effectively abolish the Cyprus EEZ. Through harassment or parallel actions, he will force companies to leave or suspend their activities until the Cyprus problem is resolved, or in the meantime he will seek the participation of Turkish Cypriots in hydrocarbons.

Turkey will aggressively challenge the demarcation of the Cyprus EEZ because it is an insurmountable legal reality that hinders its plans. Perhaps because it believes that the Turkish-Libyan memorandum guarantees it an important step towards claims of exclusivity in the Eastern Mediterranean. Greece, in addition to being ready, must move positively in accordance with the compass of maritime law in order to demarcate the borders in the region.

* Mr. Petros Liakouras is Professor of International Law, Director of the Postgraduate Program in International and European Studies at the University of Piraeus.