His exit the next day floating drilling rig “Abdul Hamid Khan” in Eastern Mediterranean not surprisingly, discussions have resumed about the extent of the escalation that Ankara may choose in August. Given the way the Turkish Oil Company (TPAO) usually operates, the floating drilling rigs do not operate randomly, but in areas where extensive 2D and 3D surveys have already been carried out.

What experience shows

Based on this trail, any area east of the 28th meridian (i.e. south of Rhodes and further east), to the open west and north of Cyprus is a potential target for exploration drilling by Abdul Hamid Khan. For the same reasons, areas west of the 28th meridian, either within the area demarcated between Greece and Egypt, or in some of them included in the so-called Turkic-Libyan memorandum, are less likely. It is assumed that the option of moving the drilling rig to the west of the 28th meridian (in the Southern Mediterranean or in the Aegean Sea) will be perceived not only by Greece, but also by the international community as a step of unilateral and vertical escalation by Turkey.

However, there have been reports in Athens that the Americans have recently been putting strong pressure on the Turkish side not to take extreme actions that could ignite tensions. The same opinion regarding the recommendations to Ankara on self-restraint was expressed by the Supreme Commander of the Allied Forces in Europe, American General Christopher Cavoli, in his contacts the previous day in Athens. Thus, according to estimates obtained as a result of the analysis of constantly incoming data and information, the most probable areas for exploration drilling by the TRAO drilling rig are:

Athens has received reports that the Americans have recently been putting strong pressure on the Turkish side not to take extreme action.

Firstly, in the area north of Cyprus, either in the area actually belonging to Turkey, or in the area that constitutes the so-called “coastal shelf” of the pseudo-state. If TPAO obtains a license from a pseudo-state, it is possible to expand the activities of Abdul Hamid Khan in the area around the occupied Karpasia peninsula, where extensive seismic surveys were carried out in the past, north and south of Eto.

Secondly, in areas that are clearly within the delimited EEZ of Cyprus in the southwest of the island. In this case, the northern part of block 6 (the Italian-French joint venture Eni/Total is drilling in the south) is one of the obvious targets and not only. Sites 4 and 5 are potential targets in the southwest of the island, as is site 3 in the southeast. The recent movement between Israel and Lebanon, documented by the visit of White House Special Envoy for Energy Amos Hochstein to settle the dispute and complete the delimitation of the EEZ between the two countries, has not gone unnoticed by Ankara, which wants to recall his presence and claims over Cyprus.

third, in areas east of the 28th meridian, in a large sea area from the south of Rhodes to 6 nautical miles from Paphos. Competent sources say “K” that a particular scenario is the one that collects the fewest possibilities but excludes nothing. In practice, testing such a scenario would lead to a repetition of the conditions of summer and autumn 2020, as happened with the research voyage “Oruch race” for three months in the flanks of the navies of Turkey and Greece. Of course, if such a scenario is confirmed, everything will be much worse, since no one will be able to claim that Abdul Hamid Khan does not violate the potential continental shelf of Greece. However, if the TPAO floating drilling rig is deployed in one of the areas located on the southwestern side of the Cyprus EEZ, it is possible that it will also move slightly to the west of area 4, reaching the eastern part of the potential Greek continental shelf. In October 2018, the research vessel Barbaros undertook surveys in the easternmost part of the potential Greek continental shelf, in an operation that took almost a month and a half, with the presence of the frigate P.N. (originally Nikephoros Fokas and later Salamis).

There will be a reaction

It is quite clear and given that, especially in the event that a floating drilling rig tries to move into the zone of potential Greek sovereignty, the Armed Forces will react, in fact, based on plans that have been enriched after many months and instructive experiences of 2020. In the diplomatic sphere, Athens took all the necessary steps to have a clear image in all Western capitals and beyond. Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias’s recent contacts in Southeast Asia, mainly his discussions with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, had this very purpose. In the case of the development of the baseline scenario, i.e. start drilling around Cyprus, then the intensity of the reaction from the EU is expected with interest. And this, of course, depends on whether the Abdul Hamid Khan sails to the north of Cyprus or to the south, where the internationally recognized waters of the Republic of Cyprus are located.