Like an undeclared volcano, the electorate exploded, and instead of flat, “known in advance” results, there was an explosion in Turkey. Citizens went to vote “as in local elections with the atmosphere of a general election”, as described by the Istanbul press, also surprised. Among the explanations: the ruling party was superior, self-sufficient, and appointed weak candidates to major town halls without the ability to mobilize the electorate. Sound familiar?

Violeta Stratan Ilbasmish, a journalist of Romanian origin who lives in Turkey and works with the newspaper “Cumhuriyet”, told the analytical site Contributors about what happened in the last few days in Turkey.

If you superimpose the events in Turkey, described in detail by the journalist, on the pre-election situation in Romania, you can ask whether it is not a harbinger of what will happen next in our country.

Boring election race. But the endless “pantomime fight” is annoying

“This election campaign was one of the most boring campaigns that I had the opportunity to observe since I was in this country,” says the journalist.

“But the apathy, indifference and sense of hopelessness we observed among Turks before these elections is the complete opposite of the state of joy, hope and bliss after the elections,” notes Violeta Stratan Ilbasmish. Erdogan’s party, which was perceived as an invincible colossus, lost.

This is the first time since the AKP’s appearance on the Turkish political scene that the CHP (Social Democratic Opposition) has managed to come out on top at the national level.

People reject the offshore of their country, whether it is Turkey or Romania

From this point of view, there are also signals in the opinion polls in Romania that people see the coalition of PSD and PNL as offshore politics and the state. This can be felt at the citizen level as an attempt to take power indefinitely by two corporate parties. The coalition claims a monopoly, but people feel that the real owners are unknown and cannot be held accountable.

“When you have a political cartel like the PSD-PNL, you automatically have an anti-cartel reaction. And young people go to anti-systemic options,” young public activist Vlad Adamescu summed up this impulse. The survey of the organization, of which Adamescu is a member, caused wide discussions with its conclusions: at the level of the whole country, among young people aged 18-30, AUR is preferred among all parties.

“The name of the real opposition is poverty!”

Without pretending to be exhaustive, a journalist from Turkey lists some of the reasons she considers important in the genesis of the great surprise after the elections:

“The serious economic crisis in which Turkey is mentioned is the most important reason that affected the results of this election. Since 2018, Turkey has been in an unprecedented economic crisis with galloping inflation. For comparison, in 2010, the inflation rate in Turkey was 6.4 percent, and in 2023 it will reach 64.8 percent.”

Already affected sections of society reacted harshly. “The name of the real opposition is poverty!” – wrote one of the most famous Turkish journalists, Banu Avar, quoted in the Contributors article.

We abandon many of our fellow citizens

And in the economic sphere, the similarity with the situation in Romania is significant. This is even if the macro indicators are good. “Let’s tell the people who are screaming that they are in trouble and that life can’t be worse for them, that in the last 8 years we have all lived far beyond our means,” said the chief economist of the National People’s Congress in November 2023. Bank, Valentin Lazea. But just as we are all dead in the long run, it is equally true that no one is living macro-economically.

Romania still has a huge rate, the highest in Europe, of citizens left behind in terms of living standards.

In addition, “relative deprivation” has appeared all over the world. It’s a disappointment with how you think of other people’s lives, not a realistic comparison to who you were a few years ago. It’s not normal, but “relative deprivation” is encouraged by social media and dominates the imagination of much of society.

Deleted, powerless candidates

Another observation of a journalist of Romanian origin from Turkey is related to the deleted profile of “Vlada” candidates in local elections. “The AKP candidates in the big cities of Turkey were not influential, powerful and charismatic political figures,” she notes.

In terms of the internal and political strength of the candidate, if we look at the election of the PSD-PNL coalition for the mayorship of Bucharest, it reflects the situation in Turkey on the banks of Dymbovica.

Erdoğan and Yohannis, two emperors

And there is something else, deeply human. Both the ruling party in Turkey and the ruling coalition in Romania are dominated by the father figures of Presidents Erdogan and Iohannis. Both were repeatedly criticized for the luxurious style of maintaining their own status as politicians: expensive trips, an imperial palace, state money spent without number. Of course, there are many differences. In Romania, representatives of the opposition and journalists are not thrown into prison overnight at their own discretion.

“What did I do,” asks the presenter? He abused people’s patience, that’s what he did”

For some time, it was not in the voting for a long time. Only dissatisfaction and a feeling of disobedience accumulates somewhere. As in these lines of the Polish journalist Ryshard Kapuscinski, who traveled the world and talked about dozens of revolutions:

“Power is the cause of revolution. Of course, I don’t want to. But the style of life, the way of ruling over time become a challenge. It appears when the feeling of impunity strengthens among the elite, the belief that they will not be punished. Everything is allowed to us, everything is possible. This is an illusion, but it is not devoid of rational grounds.”

“Indeed, for some time scandal after scandal, mockery after mockery remain without a trace. The people are silent, patient and cautious. He is afraid, he does not yet feel his strength. But at the same time, he carefully calculates the injustice and at some point achieves a balance.”

“The choice of this moment in the outbreaks is the greatest mystery of history. Why did it happen then and not sometime? Why did this event precipitate this moment and not another? Just yesterday, the authorities allowed themselves greater excesses, but no one reacted.”

In a way, this happened in Turkey.

“What did I do,” asks the presenter in surprise, what happened, as if suddenly, as if I had lost my mind? He abused people’s patience, that’s what he did.”