Yesterday, March 31, general local elections were held in Turkey. The apathy, indifference and sense of hopelessness we observed among Turks before these elections is in stark contrast to the state of joy, hope and bliss after the elections. This election campaign was one of the most boring campaigns I have had the opportunity to watch since I have been in this country. One of the reasons may be the opinion that the vote of the Turks can no longer change anything in their country. But the election results show that the electorate of about 62 million Turks can surprise. The total vote count shows a fairly clear defeat of the AKP (Justice and Development Party, led by President Erdogan).

Violeta Stratan Ilbasmish completed her doctoral studies at Marmara University in Istanbul, Faculty of Communication. Cooperates with the national newspaper “Cumhuriyet” in Turkey.

The main battle was fought for the largest cities of Turkey: Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. Until now, they were headed by the mayors of the Republican People’s Party – the opposition party of Turkey (CHP – the party founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk). The mayoral candidates from the AKP made a huge effort to win in these cities, but they did not succeed. In addition, candidates from the opposition CHP party also won elections in other major cities in Turkey that many did not think the party could win. This is for the first time since the appearance of the AKP on the political scene of Turkey, the CHP manages to take first place in the national rating.

In Turkey, there is a common saying in the mass media: “Whoever wins Istanbul, wins Turkey!”. The biggest stake in this election was Istanbul, a metropolis with 16 million inhabitants. The current mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, is one of the most popular politicians in Turkey, as well as the most influential politician in the opposition.

In the capital of Turkey, the city of Ankara, Mansur Yavas, a very popular mayor not only in Ankara, but throughout Turkey, won the election. Both Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yavash are considered potential candidates for the Turkish opposition in the 2028 presidential election.

The city of Izmir, which is considered a real city-citadel of democratic values, freedom and human rights, did not surprise public opinion in Turkey. The candidate from the Republican People’s Party won the elections this time as well.

Why did President Erdoğan’s party lose this election? In my opinion, here are the possible reasons:

• The most important reason that affected the results of this election is the serious economic crisis, in which Turkey is mentioned. Since 2018, Turkey has been in an unprecedented economic crisis with galloping inflation. For comparison, in 2010 the inflation rate in Turkey was 6.4 percent, and in 2023 it reached 64.8 percent. Some studies, however, suggest a much higher figure. The Turkish lira devalued enormously, the purchasing power of the population decreased. The government promised to make Turkey a “paradise” for importers and exporters, but meanwhile life in Turkey has become a real pain for its own citizens, who are struggling to cope with sky-high prices for basic consumer goods. The disappearance of the middle class due to the existence of a large gap between the rich and the poor is the result of years of misguided financial policies. One of the segments of society that has been perhaps the most affected by this crisis is the pensioners. President Erdoğan’s big mistake was keeping the lowest pension well below the minimum wage in the economy. The minimum pension in Turkey is 10,000 Turkish Lira (€285) and the minimum salary is 17,000 Turkish Lira (€486). Sometimes jokingly, sometimes more seriously, Turkish commentators say that 2024 should be declared “The Year of Turkish Pensioners!”. Let me quote one of the most famous Turkish journalists, Banu Avar, who stated the following: “The local elections had the atmosphere of a general election, where the vote of 13 million pensioners was decisive. The name of the real opposition is “poverty”!

• 34 political parties that did not form coalitions took part in the political race. Thus the votes were diluted. Those who are angry with the AKP have decided to vote for parties with which the AKP has formed a coalition in the past. One such party is the New Prosperity Party (YRP, Radical Islamist), led by Fatih Erbakan, the son of former Turkish Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan. Criticism of the AKP for maintaining trade relations with Israel after its attack on the Gaza Strip and other accumulated grievances make the YRP a stop for those who have fallen out with the government but do not want to join the opposition. According to the distribution of votes of the Turkish party, this party ranks 3rd (6.16%) after CHP (37.64%) and AKP (35.57%).

• At the local level, the leadership of the AKP failed to implement social policies that would lead to the restoration or improvement of the lives of women, youth, the elderly, and other categories of the population. CHP mayors in big cities have been successful in this regard, which was also reflected in the election results.

• The leadership of the AKP led by President Erdoğan has been heavily criticized by opposition media and opposition politicians for the exorbitant costs of maintaining the presidential palace, where the president resides. The ace up the sleeve for the opposition was the authoritarian regime, or translated from Turkish “one-man regime”. Currently, Turkey is classified as a state with a hybrid regime that combines elements of formal democracy and authoritarianism.

• AKP candidates in the big cities of Turkey were not influential, powerful and charismatic political figures. The charisma, authority and experience of President Erdoğan overshadowed the figures of these politicians, who remain somewhat in the shadow of the president. It is not for nothing that several commentators have declared that this election will be between Erdogan and candidates from opposition parties. AKP’s candidate for mayor of Istanbul, Murat Kurum, a former minister of the environment and urban development, has been heavily criticized for his activities in the ministry. AKP’s candidate for mayor of the capital Ankara, Turgut Altynok, was involved in scandals related to his wealth (hundreds of apartments, land plots, etc.), due to which the Turkish press called him a “real estate baron.” .

Özgur Ozel, head of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), tearfully declared in a speech delivered on election night that “the election results showed that Turkish voters want a new policy in Turkey. Today, the voters decided to change the 22-year-old image of Turkey.” However, President Erdoğan stated in his speech that: “March 31 is not the end, but a turning point. The winner of these elections is our democracy.” – Read the rest of the article and comment on Contrbutors.ro