On February 28, at the request of the so-called separatist leader Vadym Krasnoselsky, a congress of deputies and councilors of all levels is being prepared in Transnistria, an event that has caused wide discussions both in the international public space and among citizens. Republic of Moldova. It is about the “difficult socio-economic and political situation” in the Transnistrian region, and according to local politician and activist Gennady Chorba, it is expected that the separatist administration in Tiraspol may formally ask Moscow to join the Russian Federation. Are there reasons for concern among the citizens of the Republic of Moldova? Can the Transnistrian conflict escalate? Does Russia want to annex Transnistria? Is this just an action from Tiraspol’s strategy to stop the reintegration process started by Chisinau?

The context in which this congress is taking place is full of tension. Tiraspol recently expressed displeasure at new customs rules introduced by Chisinau affecting imports to the Transnistrian region, signaling escalating tensions between the two banks, including threats to impose taxes on Dubesar farmers who own farmland along Tiraspol. Route – Just as seriously, there was a threat of restricting education in the Romanian language.

In order to understand the purpose of the so-called Transnistrian authorities in organizing this extraordinary congress, it is important to analyze the reasons for these events and see if they are part of a well-thought-out strategy. Because there are often promotions and there is a lot of misinformation and blackmail. Moreover, it appears that Tiraspol has a plan to counter Chisinau’s efforts to reintegrate the region.

The first step is to express dissatisfaction and surprise at the introduction of the customs duty from January 1, 2024, although the new Customs Code was adopted in 2021, so there should not have been any surprise.

The second step is to adopt the “victim” position, which refers to the fact that Transnistria is economically strangled by the power of Chisinau.

The third step is the expression of the desire, as well as the insistence of Tiraspol, to conduct negotiations with government representatives only in the “5+2” format, knowing full well that the Republic of Moldova prefers “1+1”. format under the auspices of the OES without the presence of the aggressor state of the Russian Federation.

The fourth step is the organization of protest actions by trade unions and Transnistrian companies, trying to distance themselves from the so-called authorities in order to create the impression that the protest actions are really real, only investigations show that the main organizers of the rally in Tiraspol are from the entourage of Krasnoselskyi and Gushan.

The fifth step is the threat of organizing a “congress of all levels”, at which one or more important decisions will be made, including the desire to join Russia, possibly even by organizing a referendum, if Chisinau does not give in. Of course, the threat of organizing a referendum can be used and voiced at the congress on February 28.

Further steps depend on the reaction of the authorities in Chisinau, instructions from Moscow and personal decisions of goalkeeper Sherif.

This whole strategy is aimed at getting Chisinau to relent in its reintegration efforts, maintain the status quo, i.e. what was before the introduction of customs duties, and stop making decisions about the control and dependence of the separatist region on Chisinau.

Having said that, Chisinau must maintain its steadfast position and not fall victim to separatists’ intimidation and blackmail, but faithfully follow the reintegration plan agreed with international partners.

The fact that almost every year there are rumors about the desire of the Transnistrian region to join Russia is not surprising, especially since it has been used before. These rumors, often initiated by the so-called authorities in Tiraspol and spread by Russian media channels, serve several purposes but rarely have direct legal consequences. The reality is that the de facto administration of Transnistria, namely the conglomerate “Sheriff” headed by puppeteer Viktor Gushan, controls the political processes on the left bank of the Dniester. Gushan’s thriving business in Tiraspol and the income he receives from exports to European Union member states are completely at odds with the desire to annex the Transnistrian region to Russia, which would immediately destroy the economy of the separatist region, but also significantly reduce the fortune of the oligarch.

These movements and statements can be interpreted from several points of view. First, the request to join Russia, if formalized, means a significant escalation of separatist rhetoric, which could deepen the crisis between Transnistria, the Republic of Moldova, and the international community. On the other hand, it is possible that these gestures are part of a wider negotiating strategy aimed at pressuring Chisinau and its international partners to obtain certain political or economic concessions, but especially the abolition of import taxes for Tiraspol companies, or at least the suspension of reintegration, which means increasing dependence on Chisinau.

It should be emphasized that although the rhetoric may seem alarming, previous similar events have shown that there is a significant distance between the provocations and blackmail of the separatist leaders and the concrete changes in the politics of Tiraspol, namely the referendum organized in 2006 on independence from the Republic of Moldova. This referendum was also organized after such a congress of “all levels”. _Read the entire article and comment on it on Contributors.ro