Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit Turkey on February 12 for a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It would also be Putin’s first visit to a NATO member state since the invasion of Ukraine. It remains to be seen whether this will happen, however, and to what end. What interests are pursued by the two leaders? It is clear that the negotiations will focus on three complex topics, namely a possible truce between Russia and Ukraine, a new grain agreement on the Black Sea, and the avoidance of Western sanctions against Russia.

Peace talks

The Russian president will try with all the means at his disposal to offer Erdogan to hand over to Western partners, and possibly to Ukraine, a certain package of compromises and agreements in order to somehow achieve a truce in this sense. year. That is, more and more clear signals that Russia is open to sit down at the negotiating table. But Putin cannot offer peace now, he cannot do it directly, because at this moment none of the European leaders or the US president is ready to talk to him. As always, they do this through intermediaries such as third countries such as Turkey or Israel, potential mediators of the war in Ukraine.

A meeting with Turkey, which is the only NATO ally that can afford to meet with Russian officials, would also be a victory for the Turkish leader after his visit to Moscow last year failed to achieve much. Erdogan is known to have a fairly good relationship with both Putin and the West, so the Turkish leader can use the opportunity for dialogue to win the trust of NATO allies, as well as gain political capital for himself in the country, especially as local elections on March 31 approach. Vladimir Putin is also trying to reach out to Western leaders through Erdogan, largely because Moscow is unable to wage a large-scale war indefinitely because it is effectively exhausted. Let’s not forget that internal issues such as presidential elections, army mobilization and protests in remote regions of Siberia such as Buryatia are escalating.

Therefore, the Russians understand that, in principle, Turkey can turn to the West to influence Ukraine’s decision regarding a possible ceasefire. However, the peace terms proposed by Moscow through diplomatic channels are unacceptable for Kyiv and do not even come close to the realities on the front. The Russians were bogged down near Avdiivka for three months and suffered huge losses.

A new grain agreement in the Black Sea

During the visit, the leader of Ankara, together with his Russian counterpart, will discuss a new system that will allow transporting Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea. In addition, Erdogan said that negotiations with Russia could lead to the renewal of the grain agreement. He urged Western leaders to accept Russia’s demands, which include easing a ban on its banks’ use of the SWIFT international payment system.

There are initiatives to develop new methods of transporting Ukrainian grain to international markets, such as via foreign vessels, but which are at risk of being hit by Russian missiles, especially after Putin threatened that any vessel carrying Ukrainian cargo would be targeted in this war But it remains to be seen what is more important: the grain agreement or the international banking system.

Of course, all this time, Turkey tried to convince Russia to return to the Black Sea grain agreement, which Moscow abandoned in July 2023, a year after its implementation. Later, the UN and Turkey reached a compromise to ensure the safe transportation of products from Ukrainian ports. Kyiv has said it is discussing returning to the agreement, but Moscow has repeatedly stressed that its restoration is unlikely. However, despite the lack of consensus, some Ukrainian ships were able to transport grain to the Black Sea.

It is important that Turkey makes full use of its strategic position and becomes indispensable both for Russia and Ukraine, as well as for the international community as a whole. We are talking about the Treaty of Montreux on the demilitarization of seas and straits, a mechanism that Erdogan actively uses. With this agreement, Ankara did not miss the ships. This is what he did with Russian ships at the beginning of the war, when Putin did not expect such a decision and lost a great advantage in advancing the front, because Russian ships could not pass through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits. . So, Turkey is trying to take advantage of this, including to advance its agenda on the grain deal, as well as to strengthen its role as a mediator in the war in Ukraine.

Sanctions directed against the Russian Federation

For the first time, Turkish banks began to close the accounts of Russian customers, some even began to close the accounts of companies and make demands on individuals who go to Russia. The Kremlin has repeatedly warned about this issue and that it is not at all satisfied with the fact that it is becoming increasingly difficult for Russia to do business in Turkey. However, it is necessary to understand the reason for such a policy of Turkish banks. The pressure to block the accounts comes from the US, which means that Ankara is slowly and modestly applying some Western sanctions against Russia. _Read the entire article and comment on Contributors.ro