I have a mixed agricultural holding of about 20 hectares, several dairy cows, I follow international quotations, volumes and prices, I somehow have an idea of ​​​​the “big picture”, so I can tell you from scratch that at prices Now not only that, that many farmers will go bankrupt if urgent action is not taken, but it is also possible that we are dealing with a passive Russian strike to cause chaos.

I will structure the article a bit, trying to summarize something like this:

1. Cost-benefit analysis of several major crops, wheat and corn
2. Point analysis break-even in several variants of performance and price.
3. Quotations of grain prices on various exchanges
4. What is Russia doing now? And especially what he seems to want to do…
5. CONCLUSIONS

1. I will analyze costs and revenues by looking at an Excel spreadsheet, average costs using both labor and capital versus different price options and production per hectare

It looks like this:

In short, if you pay for the works, it will cost you 5090 lei/ha, and if you do the work yourself, 4223 lei/ha (without adding all, all costs… salaries, for example)

We will take 5,000 lei/ha as a basis

The largest share is occupied by fertilizers 43%not diesel!

Work is from 10 to 25% depending on the performance of the machine.

How much money do we get per hectare?

It depends on production and price of groats

Here are some non-subsidized options:

So, if there was no subsidy, the costs would be covered depending on the price only from the yellow squares down.

That is, if the price is 50 bani/kg, to cover costs of 5,000 lei/ha, I should have a production of 10,000 kg/ha, at 70 bani 7,182 kg/ha, at 1 lei 5,000 kg/ha and at 1.2 lei 4,160 c/ha

We are already beginning to understand that without subsidies we need huge productivity or high prices. But the subsidy covers part of the costs (maximum 20%, you need to add another 4 to each received lei, you can’t buy “gipan” with them)

If they are subsidized in different amounts/ha, what happens? (by the way, I have not seen any research by “experts” from ministries about the size of the subsidy from other countries, since we are still competing with them)

What prices and what performance cover costs?

2.Analysis of the break-even point.

For a subsidy of 100 euros/ha

For a subsidy of 200 euros/ha (approximately how much now, if you also green it)

For 300 and 400

Note that with a subsidy of 200 euros/ha, we should have a production of 8000 kg/ha at a price of 50 money/kg, reaching a production of 3000 kg/ha if the price is 1.2 lei/kg.

Do you know what the long-term average is for, say, the last 5 years? About 4500…

The subsidy does not enrich the farmer, but lowers the break-even point within the lower productivity possible here.

The higher the subsidy, the lower the limit.

We understand that in dry years, for example, the price goes up not because someone is getting rich, but because in order to break even (at least) at that level, farmers have to sell more.

We no longer take into account our average technological level compared to the countries with which we compete in the EU

Nor the prices of loans or other “misfortunes”

3. Quotation and performance

We looked here

https://www.agro.basf.ro/ro/servicii/cotatii-bursiere/

On wheat

After a peak of more than 400 EUR/t (2 lei/kg) last year, we are now at 216 EUR/t (1.08 lei/kg)

To the corn

At most, about the same time when I was also at the station…about when the war in Ukraine started!!!

Now we are at the level of 191 EUR/ton (ie about 95 money/kg)

OK, BASF, probably yes, prices from Paris, from Matiff

Enter here:

It’s “FOB USA Gulf of NOLA / Wheat HRW 12%” meaning “free on board” being loaded onto a ship somewhere in the states.

1.4 lei per kg!!!

OK, SRW wheat

“FOB USA NOLA Bay / SRW Wheat”

Wheat at 1.14 lei/kg!!! Not last year, but today!

When we have it 0.5-0.6 lei/kg

Enter here:

https://bursacereale.com/stocks/wheat

We have prices starting from 1.4 lei for HRW (Hard Red Winter) wheat, i.e. good baking wheat, and 1.14 lei/kg for the more gluten-free SRW (soft red winter)

The same with corn:

Even Russian wheat is above 1 lei/kg

1.1 lei per kg of Russian wheat on January 13, 2023!

In Russia, where oil and gas are cheap, the price is higher than ours!

How much will Ukrainian wheat cost?

0.88 lei/kg for the best lavash and 0.77 lei/kg for fodder

How much is sold here? From 0.6 lei/kg!

OK, OK, we are talking about FOB prices, transport also costs something, from Banat, for example, is more expensive, because it is further from the port and costs about 50 EUR/ton, that is, about 25 money.

Therefore, our wheat, in order to compete with the Ukrainian FOB price, should be 0.88-0.25 lei = 0.63 lei/kg.

This explains the low, extremely low price… Ukraine and Russia are dumping on our market.

Ukraine somehow understood, they are being slaughtered by Russian beasts, they are being sold because there is nowhere else to go, but in Russia it is a different matter!

4.In short, Russia is a country that plans to blackmail the whole world with grain, oil, gas and fertilizers in the future. Russian terror is not only military.

Russia took control not only of huge agricultural areas in Ukraine, but also of last year’s crops.

Russia is a dictatorship and prices can be low, depending on what the tattoo wants. And tatuka wants to combine the market share of Russia with the market share of Ukraine. Let the “imperialists” cry so that Russia will feed them:

https://www.digi24.ro/stiri/externe/un-rus-spune-razand-ca-europenii-mor-de-fame-nu-au-nimic-de-macare-implora-rusia-sa-le- give-a-piece-of-bread-to-survive-2630551

The effect of Kremlin propaganda can be seen among Russians who talk about Europeans that they are “starving” and have come to ask for “a piece of bread.”

This is not just propaganda:

“In the 2022/23 marketing year, Russia was the leader in the export of wheat, flour and wheat products”

This is how the dynamics of Russian exports changed by 1,000 tons

2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023

35,863 34,485 39,100 33,000 43,500

If in 2018 they exported 35.8 million tons, then in 2022/2023 they will export 43.5 million, 21% more. Continue reading the article on Contributors.ro