We have noted that the large changes that have occurred over time in the structure of marriages according to the correlated age of spouses can result from the action of 4 groups of factors, the first of which is (i) the size of the woman and the man. population of marriageable age depending on the number of generations from which they come. In the case of Romania, we are in an exceptional situation regarding the role of this factor. Now it is appropriate to talk about marriage market. The term is very old in the special literature, in the sociology of the family and in demography, especially in the English language. Probably, not everyone likes this term. But the marriage market is a reality, there is supply and demand, and choosing a partner is a long, winding and delicate path to marital status. There are places, circumstances, where marriageable age, women and men, single and those who want to get married meet. The market consists of many wedding rings in which women and men with similar features gather. Physical as well as occupational, social class, education, economic situation, intelligence and attractiveness, religion, ethnicity, cultural background, language, political views, tastes, plans for the future, including children. The selection is thus made by matching (assortative type). Circles can be high school, college, workplace, metro, clubs, big restaurants with music and dance nights, public holidays (Costinești, Vama Veche, May 2) and many others. Not to mention dating agencies and the explosion of online dating (acquaintance-ul), with everything good and less good. A normal demographic context is considered stability or regression of the birth rate, or moderate and widespread progress over time without significant effects on the numerical balance between the sexes by age. But what happens after a sudden and massive increase in the birth rate? This is the case of our country. The only one of its kind in Europe after the war. The huge increase in births in 1967-68 and the persistence of high numbers in subsequent years led to a glaring numerical imbalance 20 years later, especially after 1989, when the respective generations reached marriageable age. In such a situation, the special term that defines this is the term contraction of marriage. This means a quantitative imbalance between unmarried men and women of marriageable age entering the marriage market. The relative scarcity of men compared to women or the relative scarcity of women compared to men in the marriage market. This imbalance exerts pressure on the choice of partner’s age, changing the respective ages of both spouses, potentially leading to situations discrepancy, inconsistency and influencing in a number of cases the stability of the family, producer and consumer of goods and services. They may also support celibacy for both sexes. In Romanian, the term can mean marriage restrictions.

Situations of marriage restriction usually arise after wars or violent social upheavals with many casualties among young men. But Romania is different, the historian says, and the large imbalance between the number of men and women of marriageable age on the marriage market became acute during the peace years, after the forced birth rate measures taken in October 1966 and then in 1974 and 1984 by the old regime.

Figure 9 shows the ratio of the numerical imbalance between men and women in 1990, and one can predict the consequences for the marriage of some generations. For example, when women born in 1967 reached the exact age of 22 in 1989 in A, they sought partners 3 years older on average, and the offer was only half as much, men from the generation of 1964 in B In such situations, female generations reach a reorientation towards younger men, generational colleagues and perhaps an increase in ultimate celibacy. If you look at things from the perspective of men of the generation of 1964, who were 25 years old in 1989, the situation is completely opposite, and the female offer at the age of 22 is more than generous. A similar reasoning can be put forward for the situations in C and D, but to a lesser extent.

It is worth adding that even in the 1950s and 1960s there was a numerical disparity between men and women of the important marriageable age, caused by high male mortality and lower birth rates during the war years. A shortage situation has arisen. According to the 1956 census, females under 20 and 20-24 corresponded to a balanced male population aged 20-24 and 25-29, and the choice of a couple was not difficult. Not so for women aged 25-29, for whom the corresponding number of men aged 30-34 was 15 percent lower. This imbalance is propagated in later years by younger generations born during the war reaching marriageable age, and the 1966 census confirms this. Women under the age of 20 from the relatively large generation of 1946-1951 found significantly fewer men in the 20-24 age group of the younger generation of 1942-1946. Reorientation to partners from the same generation was necessary. But revenge also came, women aged 24-24, born in 1942-1946, were ahead of men aged 25-29, born in 1937-1941, who were more numerous.

At the beginning of 2023, as can be seen in the figure, the structures are rebalanced, being the “quiet” generations of 1992-2007, without the risk of marriage suppression.

Especially the generation of 1967-1968, but also the following ones, suffered tremendously because of their exceptional population size, not only because of the unprepared medical care for the doubling of the number of people born in 1967 and 1968, the lack of places in kindergartens and kindergartens, the lack of suitable places in all forms of pre-university education, lack of jobs. Generations sacrificed in a certain way by a totalitarian regime unable to look ahead in its decisions regarding the child, woman, mother, family. It seems unlikely, but the relevant generations also suffered within 2-3 decades of reaching marriageable age due to the large disparities in the age structure caused by brutal and coercive fertility policies.

Probability of marriage

Marriage probability quantifies the strength of the desire to marry by age: out of 1,000 unmarried men and out of 1,000 unmarried women who have reached the exact age (anniversary) of x years, how many get married until they reach the exact age of x+1 year. In Figure 10, we retain only the probabilities for the highest and lowest ages relating to 2018 and 2020, and the probabilities from 2022 onwards.

Here are the observations that can be gleaned from studying the probability curves. Restrictions imposed by the pandemic on people’s movement and isolation sharply reduced the number of marriages, the probability in 2000 reflects the magnitude of the decline. In general, the probability increases rapidly and steadily before the age of 20 for both men and women, with the highest values ​​recorded at 26 years for men and 24 years for women. Higher maximum values ​​can be noted in women. The figure for 2022 shows that these higher values ​​are naturally at a younger age. Compared to age, the propensity to marry is higher in young women. If we look at the level of the two curves in 2018 and 2019, lower values ​​can be observed in the latter year, perhaps a sign of a more weakened desire to marry.

What are the prospects?

Marriage was and still is maintained at a relatively high level in Romania compared to the majority of the EU-27 population due to the slower erosion of the traditional marriage model and the slower introduction of alternative family forms. In the population, which is 45 percent living in rural areas, these processes did not have and do not have the same scale as the population with a very high degree of urbanization. On the other hand, the church and religion have their contribution.

But changes are inevitable, and the number of marriages will go down. The strong positive relationship that existed over time between marriage rates and birth rates has irreversibly dissipated.

Mass emigration of young people has also affected the marriage and wedding market. Generalized studies of the evolution of the population of marriageable age by gender in the coming decades, according to Eurostat forecasts, do not outline the emergence of possible marriage situations with all the consequences. Exclusion of unforeseen situations.

Encouraging traditional marriages, which also means encouraging fertility, can have positive results if interventions are well-planned, substantial and monitored in implementation and results. This could only reduce the scale of the country’s population decline and depopulation.

Who will take them? Do young couples have jobs with a decent income? Do young families have affordable conditions for the construction or purchase of housing where children will be expected? Are young families guaranteed places in crèches, kindergartens, hot meal schools and extracurricular facilities for future children? Do young families have a guarantee of affordable and high-quality treatment for their children? They don’t have. And here we are in 2024, which will once again be full of empty promises. And the voters, for the most part, will accept them because, through dirty strategies and plans, parties and governments have made them dependent on that small proportion sufficient for the survival of large populations, which they manage according to well-rehearsed schemes. for decades… Read the rest of the article at Contributors.ro