In early March, several media outlets reported on protests in Georgia over a controversial bill. The most accessible interpretation was that it was an attempt by a part of the population to resist Russian influence. However, the political equation in Georgia is much more complex, so some explanation is needed.

Georgia aspires to become a member of the European Union, but certain dysfunctions led to the fact that last year the European Commission recommended starting accession negotiations only with Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova. Before explaining why this happened, it is necessary to see what are the main characteristics of the political system in Georgia.

Georgia is currently governed by the Georgian Dream party, which is based in the parliament based on an alliance with another party, People’s Power, which includes 9 parliamentarians who broke away from Georgian Dream.

The Georgian Dream party appeared in 2012 at the initiative of oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili and won the last three parliamentary elections in 2012, 2016, and 2020. Ivanishvili made his fortune mainly in the early 1990s, as a result of some unknown business in the space of ex-rads. Currently, it is headed by Iraklii Kobakhidze, and the prime minister from this party is Iraklii Garibashvili. It is difficult to say what role Ivanishvili still plays for Georgian Dream, as he has been removed from politics since January 2021. It is known that there is a close connection between Ivanishvili and Garibashvili, but it is not clear whether Ivanishvili has a direct influence on the party and whether he is more interested in politics than in his own affairs.

In the 2018 presidential elections, Georgian Dream supported the independent candidate Salome Zurabishvili. After becoming president, Zurabishvili distanced himself from the Georgian Dream, and this distance reached its peak in March 2023, when he repeatedly condemned the contested bill. The next presidential election will be organized by the indirect voting system.

In Georgia, there were also protests of such a scale as in March 2023, in 2019, “Georgian Dream” was accused of corruption and hidden connections with the Russian Federation.

“Georgian Dream” supports the European integration of Georgia, but wants “pragmatic relations” with the Russian Federation even after the start of the war in Ukraine. In December 2020, the Parliament of Georgia, dominated by the “Georgian Dream”, adopted a declaration in which it named Georgia’s integration into the EU and NATO as “indispensable” priorities. Georgia signed the Association Agreement and the Free Trade Agreement with the EU during the reign of the Georgian Dream.

The main political competitor of “Georgian Dream” is “United National Movement” (MNU), founded by Mykhailo Saakashvili in 2001. Since January 2023, the party has been headed by Levan Khabeishvili. During the tenure of MNU in power (2004 – 2012), relations with the Russian Federation worsened significantly, in 2008 there was an armed intervention in Georgia. Saakashvili wanted to solve the problem of the separatist republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but without success, as these are still frozen conflicts.

Perhaps the most important difference between the “Georgian Dream” and MNU is the desire to resolve these frozen conflicts, the “pragmatic relations” with the Russian Federation envisaged by the “Georgian Dream” primarily involve the preservation of the current state of affairs.

Another difference between the two sides is the approach to relations with NATO. If during the reign of MNU Georgia took significant steps towards joining NATO, since 2012 the process has stalled, even if the leaders of the “Georgian Dream” still claim the need for Euro-Atlantic integration.

On June 23, 2022, the European Commission did not recommend starting negotiations with Georgia and named 12 conditions that must be met to achieve such a result. Among them are the freedom of the press, the independence of the judicial system, the reform of the electoral system and the “deoligarization” of the country, a very transparent hint at the role that Ivanishvili continues to play.

The case of the Georgian journalist Gvaramii played an important role in making this decision. In support of this, the European Parliament voted a resolution in June 2022 that directly accused Ivanishvili of complicity in the conviction of the journalist by Georgian justice (the decision is not final). Gvaramiya resigned from the Rustavi-2 TV channel after it became the property of a person believed to be closely associated with Georgian Dream.

Another factor that strongly encouraged Georgia not to start negotiations on joining the EU is that the Garibashvili government did not want and does not want to join Georgia to the EU sanctions against the Russian Federation.

After Georgia’s rejection of its intention to start accession negotiations, Georgian Dream began to report much more critical of the EU and the US. For example, the US ambassador was accused of meddling in the Gvaramia case, and the leader of the “Georgian Dream” stated that the failure of Georgia was due to the negative role of the EU ambassador in Tbilisi. Prime Minister Garibashvili addressed a letter to Mrs. von der Leyen, considering the European Parliament’s resolution incorrect and stating that Ivanishvili no longer has any influence on the Georgian government, any statement to the contrary is “an insult to Georgia.” David McAllister, who heads the committee on foreign affairs of the European Parliament, responded. He said during a visit to Tbilisi in July 2022 that “time is running out” for Georgia.

Since the summer of 2022, the desire for European integration of the “Georgian Dream” has become less and less, and criticism of the EU, doubled by the intention to improve relations with the Russian Federation, has become more frequent.

Against this background, the draft law “On Transparency of Foreign Influence” appeared. This project was brought to the parliament not by Georgian Dream, but by its coalition partner Putrea Poporului. The project applies to all NGOs and companies with more than 20% foreign funding. The Georgia Dream justification cited a 1930s US law that Act of registration of a foreign agent (FREE). Ignorant of the essence of this law, the parallel of the Georgia project with FARA was circulated in the media without any counterarguments. In fact, there are fundamental differences between the two regulations: FARA does not require registration of an organization for the simple reason that it receives external funding. US law requires registration of all agents acting under the direction of a foreign government. Many US NGOs receive foreign funding but are not subject to FARA. Only 5% of entities registered through the FARA application are non-governmental organizations, and these are actually foundations of political parties from other countries. The US law targets lobbying by foreign governments, while the Georgia bill aims to restrict civil society. FARA referred to the danger of Nazi (Germany) or Communist (USSR) influence. This means that in fact “Georgian Dream” considers NGOs to be as big a threat as Nazism and Communism to the USA in the interwar period. The consequences of the adoption of such a bill would be catastrophic for civil society in Georgia and the quality of democracy in that country.

The Russian Federation has a law very similar to the Georgian bill passed in 2012, and the (false) argument was also a reference to FARA. The leader of “Georgian Dream” Iraklii Kobakhidze spoke in favor of this bill with the arguments that Vladimir Putin gave in 2012.

Georgian Dream was aware of how controversial this bill would be, as it lacked the courage to accept it and allow its coalition partner to distance itself from it if there was a serious challenge – and it actually happened, beyond the expectations of the initiators.

After that, there were protests in which many people took part. The EU Delegation in Tbilisi (which stated that its adoption would be contrary to EU norms and values), the US State Department and President Zurabishvili reacted negatively to this bill.

On March 10, the Parliament of Georgia decided to withdraw the controversial draft law. At the same time, the press secretary of the Kremlin, Dmytro Peskov, said that the Russian Federation has nothing to do with the controversial draft law and “does not interfere in the internal affairs of Georgia” (this statement does not inspire confidence due to the lack of trust in the broadcaster). .

The most interesting aspect of the episode with the appeal of the draft law is connected with the parallel with Ukraine. In the midst of the protests in Tbilisi, President Zelensky publicly intervened, declaring that he supports these protests, as well as Georgia’s desire to become a member of the EU along with Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova. The Russian Federation sent a warning during the protests, saying that if Georgia wanted to avoid Ukraine’s fate, it would do well to end the protests. Georgian Dream leader Iraklii Kobakhidze compared the protests to the 2013 Maidan, saying that the result of these protests was the loss of Crimea, the conflict in Donbas that began in 2014, and the war that began in 2022. Kobakhidze accused Saakashvili that due to the promotion of protests and a pure anti-Russian position, “we lost 20% of what we had” (an allusion to the separatist republics). Thus, the “Georgian Dream” expressed a fundamental contradiction: because of the opposition, those who want more European integration and less relations with the Russian Federation, Georgia faces the impossibility of exercising its sovereignty over its entire territory, just like Ukraine, but Kobakhidze forgets to specify , that the Russian Federation is the aggressor in Georgia, as it is in Ukraine, and not the victim of aggression that responds in self-defense.

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