“I think that Moldova’s chance to survive as a democratic country is only in the EU, and we must be realistic about what will happen in our region in the next 10-15 years. Of course, we all hope for a quick victory for Ukraine and it will happen, but we will not see Russia become a democratic country very soon, which means that the challenges for the region will still be there.”

Maya Sandu, statements at the Davos Economic Forum (euronews.ro)

The Republic of Moldova is a small, poor, divided country that is always at risk of destabilization, especially in the face of such a harsh, high-stakes war as the one being waged by the Russian Federation in Ukraine. The country’s population has declined sharply, falling below 3 million registered residents in the 2014 census, from just over 4 million at independence. Kishinev has not (yet) regained control over the territories to the left of the Dniester (the so-called Transnistrian Republic) and retains only symbolic control over autonomous Gagauzia.

The majority of the population claims to be ethnic “Moldovans”, and many “ethnic Moldovans” speak Russian as their mother tongue and only then speak the official language of the state, i.e. “Moldovan”. Only about 7% of the inhabitants of the Republic of Moldova identified themselves as Romanian during the 2014 census, although about 620,000 received Romanian identity documents; it seems that two-thirds of them continue to declare themselves “Moldovans” instead of “Romanians” out of inertia.

PPI conducted a survey in 2022 on the position of Moldovans on the subject of the unification of the Republic of Moldova with Romania and, according to Open.md, slightly more than a third of respondents support this idea. In 2011, a survey conducted by the Center for Sociological Investigations CBS-AXA showed that about 40% of citizens of the republic would like to return under the umbrella of the Russian Federation, about a third would like to join the European Union and only 5% would like to join Romania. (hotnews.ro)

A very recent poll conducted by the CBS-Research Center for Social Studies and Marketing and the WatchDog.MD Advocacy and Public Policy Community shows that if a referendum were held, 53.5% of citizens of the republic would vote. for joining the European Union and 23.8% still for joining the Eurasian Economic Union, the leader of which is the Russian Federation. As for joining NATO, only 26.9% would vote to join the alliance, while 55.5% were against it. (cdn.g4media.ro)

The pro-European government in Chisinau, led by Prime Minister Natalia Havrylitsa and President Maia Sandu, is able to govern a divided and fearful country whose population is unwilling to take a heroic stance (like their Ukrainian neighbors) in a difficult period. the crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, which increased the price of natural gas by 7 times and almost doubled the price of food products.

The crisis created by the war in Ukraine has also brought with it certain opportunities, some probably unexpected. First, an opportunity was created for the Republic of Moldova to apply for membership in the European Union (March 3, 2022), receiving an invitation for membership almost immediately (June 23, 2022), then the war closed Transnistria’s eastern border. and virtually halted the large-scale smuggling through Odesa that had allowed Tiraspol’s leaders to defy Chisinau for three decades.

The Republic of Moldova, which for 30 years was blackmailed by Moscow and Tiraspol due to dependence on natural gas supplies by Gazprom and electricity produced in Kuchurgan in Transnistria, managed to become a member of the Community in just a few months. European Energy began to import natural gas not from the Russian Federation, and from the point of view of electricity, it no longer fully depends on supplies from the left side of the Dniester.

STATE OF THE REPUBLIC ON THE BASIS OF COMBINED CRISES

After February 24, 2022, this is the first case in the history of the Republic of Moldova, since independence, when Chisinau can control what is imported on the left bank of the Republic of Moldova, that is, in the separatist region, since all imports are made on the western border, with Romania.

Even a year ago, smuggling on the border with Ukraine – the Ukrainian port infrastructure on the Black Sea (an important logistics hub) allowed the smuggling of various goods, cigarettes, etc. through the territory of Transnistria, from there they crossed the Dniester, entered the territory of the Republic of Moldova tax-free, and cigarette smuggling was directed to Romania and then to Europe.

Stabilization of the political situation in the republic was achieved, provision of energy resources, gas, electricity, fuel oil, wood, based on an aid package of 5 billion Moldovan lei intended for citizens to compensate for gas and electricity bills.

Chisinau International Airport, a very important critical piece of infrastructure, was successfully nationalized, and the bus station network, which had been hijacked like the airport by organized crime groups, was nationalized. Infrastructural projects have been launched: the bridge from Ungeni, the bridge from Leova-Bumbata, the supply of drinking water from Iasi for four districts bordering Romania.

“About energy security” – declares Ihor Grosu, president of the parliament from Chisinau – “we diversified our sources of gas supply. For the first time in 30 years, we managed to buy and reserve gas outside of the Russian Federation. Dependence, which was ubiquitous, a huge vulnerability, an Achilles’ heel, at any moment – and we lived on this experience for several years, when in the dead of winter he invented and reduced the volume of gas. Total dependence. Now we are better, we are working on interconnections with Romania, we became a member country of the Energy Community, together with Ukraine, in full war (…), we we can supply our system with electricity from Romania, from EU markets.”

Ihor Grosu recognizes the very high pressure exerted on the government, on Prime Minister Natalia Havrylitsa, as well as the fact that within the main ruling party – PAS – there are various discussions and opinions, some of which differ, related to the activities of the government and the decision to improve the normative legal act.

But the president of the parliament denies that there is a split in the ruling coalition between the alleged party supported by President Maia Sandu and another party formed around Prime Minister Natalia Havrylitsa. He also denies any discussion of a possible change of prime minister that the president of the republic would demand:

“At the moment, I do not see the need to change the prime minister. I also worked in the executive power, I also worked in the parliament. The pressure on the executive power is much greater, this is the area in which you must intervene, there is always something in the country is happening. If at some point it is necessary, it will be a political decision within the party that will be announced and explained to the people.” (G4Media)

ADMISSION OF THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA TO THE EUROPEAN UNION

Chisinau’s goal, said the president of the republic, Maia Sandu, is to complete negotiations on joining the European Union by 2030.

At the same time, as confirmed by Ihor Grosu, the president of the parliament in Chisinau, the authorities of Moldova stopped participating in the activities of the Commonwealth of Independent States, in meetings at the level of presidents of countries, prime ministers, parliamentarians, and ministers. , etc.; In addition, all the treaties signed by the Republic of Moldova with member states or on the CIS platform are currently being evaluated in order to make certain decisions about those that will be preserved and those that should be denounced.

The same Ihor Grosu believes that the window of opportunity for the accession of the Republic of Moldova is too important, even unique, so Chisinau cannot afford to miss it. At the same time, the existence of a real problem regarding joining the Union is not seen just because there is a separatist territory of Transnistria, the same Moldovan politician believes, provided that: “in the EU, we still have precedents of states that have joined, we are talking about Cyprus, which is currently somehow in dispute, with Northern Cyprus, Turkey”.

MEP Teodor Stolozhan, in a op-ed published Bursa newspaperbelieves that the Republic of Moldova can achieve its goal of completing negotiations on accession to the European Union in 6-7 years, if several conditions are met:

• the ruling political configuration in the Republic of Moldova remains favorable for joining the EU and the continuation of the necessary reforms both in 2023 and in the next 6 years;

• The Republic of Moldova meets the criteria for joining the EU, namely the criteria of political, economic and administrative capacity to fulfill its obligations as an EU member state;

• uses positive experience in the accession process of neighboring member states, primarily Romania.

The speed of the accession process depends crucially on the duration of the negotiations on the 35 chapters covering all EU legislation and standards, as well as the Association Agreement, which will be ratified by each member state of the Union and the Republic of Moldova. The accession process will be financially supported by the Union both through grants and through loans provided by the EU and the European Investment Bank at favorable prices compared to commercial banks. Read the full article and comment on Contributors.ro