Commentary on the article by academician Lucian Alba, published in Financial Studies, 18 January 2023.

A very interesting article by academician Lucian Alba. As far as I know, not many articles have been published in the Romanian economic or demographic literature, in which the problems of the impact of long-term, deeply negative evolutions of the main demographic phenomena (birth rate, mortality, external migration) on the economy are considered. of the country’s development were considered after 1989 and possible promising developments (the author: “…the theoretical trajectories that control, in accordance with economic growth, the dynamics of the elements of the demographic balance and future values ​​can be estimated.) Unfortunately, the article does not the sources of the numerous data used are indicated and there are no references to known works for a theoretical approach to the problems. I will not refer to the author’s evaluations at the world level and at the level of the European Union, I am only interested in evaluations of the development of events in our country.

The author examines five demographic indicators that are considered fundamental to what he calls balance of demographic dynamics: birth rate (rn), death rate (rm), natural increase (sn), annual statistical increase (ssp), defined as the difference between the population size of the current year and the previous year, and the implicit migration rate (m ), as the difference between the natural increase and the annual statistical growth (symbols will be useful to the reader in the following comparative figures).

In the absence of data sources, I follow the approach of identifying five indicators for the years 1992-2020 and comparing them to the data in the article in graphical form (1990 and 1991 are not relevant to the development). birth rate, death rate and external migration after 1989).

Is there a possible and useful approach that complements the one in the article? Yes, it is possible, but with great care. The problems faced by the analyst are related to the data being used. The five components of demographic dynamics in the article cannot have population values place of residence (permanent place of residence) in the country (22211708 inhabitants as of January 1, 2020), but only for the population with usual place of residence in the country, permanent population (19354339 inhabitants as of January 1, 2020).

The economic consequences of demographic decline due to natural decline and negative net migration affect the permanent population that normally resides in Romania, not Romanians residing in other countries. There are also differences in the number of births and deaths in the two populations, but insignificant on the first measure and insignificant on the second. If the analysis proposed by the author refers to the permanent population, almost insurmountable difficulties arise: the number of the permanent population is known only after 2002, births and deaths – only after 2011. The National Institute of Statistics encountered difficulties that could not be exceeded in determining the permanent population and indicators of natural movement and external migration with a change of residence before the census in October 2011. The article does not provide details about the methods of estimating the permanent population for 1992-2002. and birth and death rates. from 1992-2011. Read the whole article and comment on Contributors.ro