A bit of recent history

The European Union is looking for alternative sources and ways of supplying gas to Russia. In 2002, European officials, backed by the Americans, began discussing the Nabucco pipeline, an alternative gas supply from Iraq with the possibility of supplies from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Egypt. An intergovernmental agreement between the governments of Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Austria was signed only in 2009, according to the source, only Azerbaijan. Initially, the interconnector was supposed to transport 10 billion cubic meters per year (million cubic meters per year), then increase to 23 mm per year.

As a threat to the Russian gas pipeline “South Stream” (later transformed into “Turkish Stream”), the Russian Federation made every effort to stop this project, which happened in 2013. The withdrawal of the Austrian company OMV from the project led to its failure.

Immediately after 2000, it was discussed that the pipeline (White Stream), which starts in Azerbaijan, passes through Georgia and reaches the coast of Romania at the bottom of the Black Sea. The project was abandoned due to lack of investors, cheap Russian gas from South Stream.

In 2010, another route with gas also from Azerbaijan was planned. The AGRI-Azerbaijan-Georgia-Romania Interconnector was envisioned as a pipeline route between Azerbaijani resources through Georgia, where a liquefaction plant was to be built on the Black Sea coast, and the liquefied gases were loaded onto LNG trucks to be transported to Romania, in Constanta, where they would were to be liquefied and introduced into the European transport system. The maximum transport capacity was supposed to be 8 million cubic meters. cubic meters/year

And this project was shelved because it threatened Russia’s monopoly on gas supplies to Europe, the southern branch of the Kremlin-initiated energy clamp. The delay was also linked to the frozen conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, Ossetia and Abkhazia, conflicts initiated by Russia and then frozen specifically to destabilize the region through which the pipeline’s alternative routes were to pass.

Meanwhile, another gas transport corridor from Azerbaijan through Georgia, Turkey to Europe has been put into operation. There are branches of the TAP (Trans-Adriatic Pipeline) to Greece and Italy and the BRUA (Bulgaria-Romania-Hungary-Austria).

Today, the capacity of TANAP is 16 million cubic meters. cubic meters/year, and in 2023 it will be increased to 23 million cubic meters.

TAP has a capacity of 10 million cubic meters. m/year, and BRUA should have a capacity of 4.4 million cubic meters. Today, the Turkey-Bulgaria interconnector is only 3 million cubic meters per year.

At the end of 2022, the authorities of Romania and Azerbaijan returned to the discussions started on the subject of AGRI. But this is not the only Romanian-Azerbaijani energy project: there is also a discussion about an undersea cable that would transport “renewable electricity” from Azerbaijan through Georgia, at the bottom of the Black Sea, to Romania (last week I noted that the Azerbaijanis do not produce renewable energy).

After the USSR, Azerbaijanis remained in the dynastic dictatorship of the Aliyevs, established in 1969.

The modern territory of Azerbaijan was part of the Ottoman Empire, and then the Russian Empire, after which the Transcaucasian Federal Democratic Republic separated (1918), two years of independence, and then was included in the USSR from 1920. In 1991, its independence from the USSR was declared. It is an Altaic-Turkic language state, which Turkey considers a “younger brother”, is a member of the Community of Turkic States and the Community of Turkic Culture States. He founded the CIS – the Commonwealth of Independent States headed by the Russian Federation.

Azerbaijan includes a disputed territory with Armenia: Nagorno-Karabakh. Despite the fact that this territory is inhabited by Armenians, it is recognized as part of the Republic of Azerbaijan. The tension began immediately after the collapse of the Russian Empire. The region became part of the Azerbaijan SSR. The war of attrition began in 1988 and lasted until 1994. There was relative peace until 2016, but tensions escalated for four days in 2016. The conflict escalated even more in 2020. Russia mediated peace between the two warring parties, but in reality it is a frozen conflict that occasionally escalates into armed clashes. There are testimonies describing atrocities committed by both sides.

The logic of the existence of this conflict is to stop any possibility of building an alternative route for the transportation of oil and gas from Azerbaijan to Turkey and further to the countries of the European Union. The conflict has generally halted investment in the Nabucco pipeline or pipelines to the Black Sea, potential parts of the White Stream or AGRI projects.

Russia (with troops from both sides), Turkey, Iran and non-state mercenaries from Chechnya, mushakheds from Afghanistan, South Ossetia, North Ossetia, Russian Kazakhs from Kuban were also involved in the conflict.

The Republic of Azerbaijan is a presidential republic with a unicameral parliament in which the president has absolute power, which he exercises in his own interests, and is considered a dynastic dictatorship in international civil liberties reports. In 1969, Heydar Aliyev seized power in the Azerbaijan SSR. He was elected president from 1993 to 2003, when he died. In 2003, his son Ilham Aliyev took over power. In 2003, he won the election with 77%, in 2008 with 87%, in 2013 with 85% and in 2018 with 86%. Since 2017, his wife Mehriban Aliyeva has been the vice president. Opponents accuse the government of arbitrary arrests for the purpose of intimidation. Corruption is widespread, and the Pandora Papers succinctly describe the financial empire of the Aliyev family with branches all over the world. In order to achieve such properties around the world, in order to cover the totalitarian regime in front of Western governments, the corruption of the Azerbaijani authorities, especially due to the scandal in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe – PACE, was called “caviar diplomacy”. Officials from Germany, Bulgaria, Italy, Malta came under investigation , who received money, gold and large amounts of caviar. But there are many European countries that have been targeted in the Azerbaijani Landdrome. In Romania, there are few media channels that have investigated the relationship of Romanian politicians with Azerbaijani “caviar diplomacy”. (here is an example from foreign publications and some of Romania – also here)

In other words, Romania is also a target of Azerbaijan’s “caviar diplomacy”, still not investigated by legal institutions.

Geopolitical pollution is an alarming phenomenon

There is a phenomenon in geopolitics: pollution. We have a flock of “tins” that come from the countries of the Soviet Union and settled in the Caspian Sea, the Caucasus Mountains and east to Mongolia. These are all extremely corrupt dictatorships or autocratic regimes. The actions of all these types of authorities pollute the neighbors. We see such pollution from Azerbaijan to Turkey and further to Bulgaria and Romania. Another example of infection is the “package” from Turkmenistan – Uzbekistan – Tajikistan – Kyrgyzstan – Kazakhstan to the Russian Federation and then to Ukraine. (let’s remember Ukraine before Volodymyr Zenenskyi!)

In addition, the state of instability can pollute. An example is Afghanistan, which pollutes the entire area between Pakistan and Yemen.

And Hungary underwent an “operation” of contamination by the Russian Federation, turning into an EU state that supports Moscow. The pollution caused by Russia is the energy destabilization of the whole of Europe, the entanglement of governments with agents of Moscow influence or “useful idiots” who serve Russian interests.

One cannot fail to mention Muslim countries with Islamist dictatorships that pollute other states with a predominantly Muslim population.

The West has also polluted the former communist countries: in the first stage with the prosperity offered by the advantages of liberal democracy, and in the latter period with the shortcomings of the pragmatism of capital, which must make a profit even with partners who do not share its importance.

Azerbaijan and European energy geopolitics

Thus, the major Western economies have turned to the economic advantages and especially the cheap energy offered by countries with governments that do not respect the rights and freedoms of citizens, where there is no market economy, with a high degree of corruption and border conflicts. Until February 24, 2022, relations with the Russian Federation were a striking example. There are no big differences between the situation in Moscow before the war and the situation in Baku today. After February 2022, the Russian Federation destroyed the regional order by launching a war against Ukraine.

As an alternative reserve to Russian gas, the Azerbaijani gas field is considered important for the European Union.

At the same time, the AGRI route is also an important alternative to US LPG.

The ARGI route actually also bypasses Turkey, which has become an important energy hub through which non-Russian energy supply channels to Europe pass. But the Turkish stream and the Blue stream, the southern branches of the Russian “energy tick”, also enter the territory of Turkey. We must not forget that in a few months, Turkey will connect its gas reserves from the Black Sea with the European gas transport system, the projected reserves of more than 700 million cubic meters. Turkey also wants to extract gas from the Mediterranean Sea. In other words, Turkey is trying to get rid of its dependence on Russian gas, which was 76% before the commissioning of Turkish Stream. Added to this dependence on the Russian Federation is a future dependence on Russian nuclear fuel and technology, as the Russian concern RAO is building a large nuclear power plant on the shores of the Mediterranean Sea.

Turkey has become a danger with the potential to become a threat, because currently TANAP (from 2023 – 23 million cubic meters per year), BTE – Baku – Tbilisi – Erzurum (24 million cubic meters per year), Turkish Stream (31.5 million cubic meters/year) and Blue Stream (16 million cubic meters/year). Most of these gases are consumed, and only 3 million cubic m go to Bulgaria (ITB Interconnector) and 7 million cubic meters. m/year to Greece (ITGI Interconnector). Read the whole article and comment on Contributors.ro