The war launched by the Russian Federation against Ukraine caused a global grain crisis, and the blockade of the Russian Navy led to the fact that the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Mykolaiv, Chornomorsk, Pivdenny and Ochakiv could no longer ensure the transportation of goods by sea[1]. However, the export of grain from Ukraine – wheat, sunflower, corn – was extremely necessary, for reasons of commercial and food security or humanitarian reasons, because many countries of the world depend on the annual agricultural production in this country.

The specter of a food crisis loomed large over traditional consumers of Ukrainian grain, such as Eritrea, Somalia, Libya, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Israel, Tunisia, Ethiopia, Yemen, and Kenya.[2]but at the same time, the European market for derivative products reacted instantly – for example, for a large amount of edible oil needed for the food and gastronomy industry in Italy, there was suddenly a shortage of raw materials – sunflower seeds from Ukraine.

In the situation created by Russian blackmail, there were three initiatives aimed at facilitating the unblocking of Ukrainian grain exports, both those remaining from 2021 – production of 86 million tons, and those expected for 2022 – estimated production. almost 56 million tons[3].

One came from Romania and included a series of investments made at an accelerated pace starting in February 2022 to modernize and expand the road, rail and port infrastructure connecting Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova, through which Ukrainian grain is exported in large volumes. Thus, President Klaus Iohannis had the opportunity to make a statement[4] at the UN General Assembly in September, it was stated that Romania contributed to the transportation of 60% of the grain exported by Ukraine in 2022, so the (estimated) overwhelming percentage was achieved, in particular, through the port of Constanta and on the Danube through the Romanian-Moldovan trilateral Ukrainian cooperation, respectively, on the Sulin Canal and the port of Galaţi, as well as through the ports of Giurgiulesti and Izmail[5].

The second came from Turkey through the mediation of the Istanbul Agreement, which allowed for the creation of a food corridor[6] temporarily accepted by the Russian Federation and Ukraine, which restored the export of grain by sea accompanied by convoys of civilian vessels by the powerful military fleet of Turkey. The first ship left Odesa port in August 2022[7], but the significant role of Turkey’s military power at sea was visible later in October 2022, when Russia threatened to withdraw from the agreement in response to Ukraine’s attacks on Russian warships. With the voice of Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, Turkey guaranteed the safety of Ukrainian convoys with its military fleet[8]which devalued the Russian threat.

A third initiative came from Poland, as well as Romania, which facilitated the transportation of grain from Ukraine by road and rail, but faced the same problems: traffic jams when trucks passed through customs and the difference in gauge between Polish and Ukrainian railways.[9]. Adding the associated consequences such as the relatively long distances of road transport and the reluctance of insurers to transport trucks through conflict zones, all this created the additional problem of excessive costs throughout the supply chain, especially compared to the sea option available before the war, when 90% agricultural products of the country were exported through Ukrainian ports.

In the short term, these three initiatives have been agreed, the imperative at the moment is the rescue of tens of millions of tons of grain stored last year in Ukrainian silos or collected this year, as well as their delivery to beneficiaries in Europe, Africa and the Middle East. But what will happen after the war? In the long term, the transport routes created under the current conditions may prove to be competitive, especially since the best option for the export of agricultural products of Ukraine remains the sea, through Ukrainian ports. It is all the more important to anticipate the following question: what benefit will there be tomorrow from the investments of Romania and Poland today in the transport infrastructure that serves relations with Ukraine, at the expense of national or European funds?

Undoubtedly, the development of road, railway and port transport infrastructure in eastern directions serves the strategic interests of the European Union, and for Romania the Ukrainian grain crisis became an unexpected opportunity, suddenly European funds became available at an unprecedented level and in the network. the amount exceeds any previous national allocation. Despite this record, Bucharest lacks the political projection of economic relations with Ukraine for the post-war period, when the challenge will present itself: what will we do with the infrastructure elements added now, in the context of the grain crisis? ?

Fortunately, in the case of Romania, there is an answer that cannot remain the same: the Republic of Moldova. Ukraine borders Romania on the northern and eastern borders, interrupted on the map by the Republic of Moldova, with a length of 684 km.[10] common Romanian-Moldovan border. For comparison, the length of the Moldovan-Ukrainian border is 1,222 km[11], almost doubled. Practically, Ukraine embraces the Republic of Moldova on its border with Romania, along the Prut, between the settlements of Darabani and Sulina, on the Romanian side.

Superimposed on this geographical reality is the vision of foreign policy and economic policy that Romania projects towards its eastern neighborhood, in which the Republic of Moldova was, is and will be an obvious priority for many reasons, but there is a risk of “not seeing the forest for the trees” on several levels. Behind the Republic of Moldova is Ukraine, without which it will not be possible to improve the difficult situation of Transnistria, and further, going south on the map, there are such states as Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, which are closely watching what Romania is doing in the eastern direction.

In short, Ukraine is about 20 times larger than the Republic of Moldova in terms of population, population or gross domestic product. However, the commercial exchanges carried out by Romania with the Republic of Moldova have a larger volume than those carried out with Ukraine, and in the last 10 years have recorded completely different dynamics. Read the whole article and comment on contributors.ro