On November 8, Americans elect members of the House of Representatives, a third of the Senate (actually 35 of the total 100 seats) and thousands of local elected officials, including 36 governors.

A few months ago, Republicans declared a tsunami for both chambers. At the moment, forecasts are much more nuanced. Midterm presidential elections are always a difficult time for the current administration. Over the past half century, as he noted Le Point, the ruling party lost, except in 1998. Thus, there is a symbolic initial hurdle for a Democratic administration in Washington. Add to that inflation at 8.5%, a sharp rise in insecurity, and President Biden’s growing unpopularity, which now stands at nearly 40%.

The US has become an extremely polarized country from a political point of view, and the Republicans managed to put the issue of migration at the center of the election campaign: the Democrats were accused of tolerating hidden migration, especially from Latin America. The Democrats did not find adequate arguments to counter these accusations. In addition, several blunders by President Biden have raised doubts about his level of insight.

However, Democrats played the abortion card well by criticizing the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the decision Roe v. Wade. Republican-dominated states did not wait for these midterm elections to pass new anti-abortion legislation, but did so immediately after the Supreme Court decision, which sparked a wave of controversy and criticism from Democrats. The question of the moment is whether this decision will have an effect on this election in the sense of a mass mobilization of Democratic supporters. Another issue that could be used politically is guns, a longstanding dispute between Republicans and Democrats. President Biden was elected on a pro-gun agenda, and during his time in office several measures were passed and implemented that were seen as insufficient by Democrats and heavily criticized by Republicans. Uvalde, Buffalo, Memphis are just as many moments that have shown that the authorities cannot really intervene in critical moments in a country where people own more than 400 million firearms. It is difficult to say who will profit from the increase in armed attacks. Both sides have been avoiding the topic lately.

It is possible that after this election, the Republicans will have a majority in the House of Representatives, and the Democrats will remain in the majority in the Senate. Losing the House won’t really mean much change, as Democrats currently hold a slim majority.

What the Republicans practiced is known only to a limited circle gerrymandering in the 20 states they completely control, drawing the boundaries of constituencies to their advantage. They resorted to this practice, knowing from the outset that they would not face opposition from a Supreme Court dominated by justices appointed under Donald Trump.

Kevin McCarthy is likely to become the new Speaker of the House six years after his failed attempt in that direction. McCarthy promised to review US aid to Ukraine, declaring that he “will not write a blank check for Ukraine.” Without the approval of Congress, the Biden administration will not be able to spend a single dollar on Ukraine. The explanation of the position of the Republicans is not related to complex strategic intentions or possible negotiations with the Russian Federation. This is a personal revenge of Donald Trump, who believes that Ukraine and Zelensky in particular played a role in the Democrats’ failed attempt to impeach him. The US has so far spent $25 billion in humanitarian or financial aid to Ukraine and provided $27.5 billion worth of military equipment. On the other hand, the Republicans do not perceive the issue of aid to Ukraine as a single issue: as he notes politicalSenator Lindsey Graham recently said that most Republican senators do not share McCarthy’s ideas.

The big question now among the US’s transatlantic partners is whether the Republican-dominated Congress will begin to think about relations with the Russian Federation in terms of encouraging peace talks. Washington Post to report on the steps taken in this regard in Russian-American relations. The Wall Street Journal does not deny the fact that Sullivan had contacts with Russian officials, but assured that they were not aimed at the beginning of peace negotiations. In contrast, Under the Republic repeat the script Washington Post. It is very possible that these discussions took place, but nothing concrete was discussed, the goal of the Democrats was to soften the influence of the topic of the war in Ukraine on the election campaign, with the idea of ​​preventing the Republicans from becoming representatives. unique to the “pacifist” trend. There are many uncertainties about how the US will treat the war in Ukraine in the future, but one thing is certain: the schedule for the delivery of weapons agreed with European partners no earlier than March 2023, at least four months later, this policy will be completed. cannot be changed, regardless of the political equation in Washington. And in four months, it is very likely that the war in Ukraine will have a development that cannot be predicted at the moment.

The election will also affect relations between the US and China. Donald Trump has made isolating China a priority of his mandate. Although it was believed that the Biden administration would resume a more favorable course with China, this did not happen. In addition, according to the new US National Defense Strategy released in late October, China poses a “fundamental” risk to US security. The Republican-dominated Congress will want to address a fundamental problem in US-China relations, namely the trade deficit. A problem that Donald Trump promised to solve when he ran for office in 2016, but which appears to have no concrete solutions. It is likely that the Republicans, in the absence of a solution to the problem of this deficit, will force the European Union to be more restrictive in relations with China. However, in general, reporting on China has become a bipartisan political issue. Read the whole article and comment on Contributors.ro