Provoked by Russian aggression against Ukraine, the geopolitical crisis in Eastern Europe poses a threat to other countries in the region, where the power of the Russian factor is stronger than local resilience. Considering the militaristic and revisionist nature of Russia, first of all, in relation to the former Soviet space, the existing dependence on the Russian state should be perceived as a risk to national interests. Such risks are visible in the case of Georgia, but even more acute in the case of Moldova. Both states have a weakened degree of resilience due to traditional internal weaknesses, the still-unresolved effects of the pandemic and, more recently, as a result of Russia’s geopolitical actions. The resilience of Moldova and Georgia is comparable in many aspects. One of the main differences between them concerns geography and, accordingly, proximity and national preferences towards Russia or its geopolitical alternative, the European Union (EU).

First of all, sustainability should be perceived as an internal state of states. This is necessary to overcome internal or external crises through absorption, adaptation or transformation in order to return to the old balance or create a qualitatively new one. Thus, the consequences of failures can be limited, which can be measured in terms of political, socio-economic, technological, environmental or security costs. The stability of the state is also of great importance for foreign policy and relations with other international players. However, the lack of stability in certain strategic areas or its weakened nature can become an “invitation” for states with hostile intentions to intervene. Conversely, by developing and demonstrating resilience, target states can deter hostile actions by adversaries. Therefore, strengthening the stability of the state can become an additional measure to support, and not replace, national security. In the same vein, strengthening resilience contributes to increasing the level of civilian preparedness for certain imminent (known) or unpredictable (unknown) risks, as well as developing or updating tools to manage current crises.

Stability of Georgia and Moldova – in comparison

When measuring the level of stability of the state, a number of parameters are used that determine the functioning of the state in conditions of partial or complete violations. According to NATO’s vision of resilience and civil preparedness for crises (which represent risks in the materialization phase), seven main elements of resilience can be identified: 1) ensuring the continuity of government and critical public services; 2) uninterrupted supply of energy resources; 3) the ability to effectively manage the uncontrolled movement of people; 4) uninterrupted access to food and water resources; 5) the ability to manage a large number of victims; 6) stable civil communication systems; 7) sustainable civil transport systems. All these elements are unlikely to be completely dysfunctional, except in “bankrupt states”.

If analyzed through the lens of the seven elements of sustainability, the situation in Moldova and Georgia is different. Situations in Moldova pose increased risks compared to those experienced by the Georgian state. The latter may face some anti-government protests, but they have already become recurring and do not lead to large political costs, even if the government makes significant progress in obtaining the status of a candidate country in the EU. Things are quite different in Moldova, where the authorities have not yet encountered large-scale anti-government protests.

In Moldova, public dissatisfaction with the implementation of certain reforms (optimization of universities), the deterioration of socio-economic conditions (inflation) or the pressure of the pro-Russian opposition (protests of socialists and the Shore party) were insignificant during the present time and/or took place outside the capital. The effects of the drought on agriculture and access to drinking water from the Dniester River (the worst anti-record since the country’s independence), as well as the possible interruption of gas supplies or false bomb alerts from the country’s main airport, could worsen the situation. These facts limit citizens’ access to critical public services and increase the level of public frustration. According to pessimistic scenarios, due to the coincidence of political and socio-economic motivations, anti-government protests can acquire a geopolitical connotation with great risks for a break in the current government. Such negative events could also become possible if Russian military forces arrive in Odesa (currently unlikely due to Ukrainian defenses) or if Russia decides to use its military presence in the Transnistrian region, consisting of about 1,500 Russian soldiers from a deployed Russian Task Force illegally stationed in Moldova. In total, four parameters of sustainability register serious deficiencies in Moldova, while in Georgia – only one and partially (See the table belowRead more on Contributors.ro