More and more experts agree that the pandemic is over. The president of the Standing Committee on Vaccination (Stiko) in Germany, Thomas Mertens, stated at the end of October that he now considers Sars-CoV-2 to be an endemic virus. He noted that the difference between a pandemic and an endemic is probably more psychological than scientific.

Because endemicity does not mean that the virus will disappear, but will always appear with a relatively constant number of cases, Mertens said.

The term “endemic” describes a state in which the waves of infection are subsiding, and therefore the effects of the infectious process are less severe for a large part of the population.

The basis is widespread immunity through vaccination and/or disease avoidance, which ensures fewer infections and a milder course of illness. The immune system no longer encounters a new type of pathogen, it reacts faster and better to the infection.

Fadeaway

Intensive care physician Christian Karagiannidis, who is a member of Germany’s government’s coronavirus expert panel, was optimistic. In an interview with RND Deutschland, he said yes when asked if the pandemic would end after the winter: “I expect the pandemic to disappear gradually from now on.”

There will certainly be another small wave, but the population’s immunity is strong and there are significantly fewer Covid patients in intensive care units, Karagiannidis said.

He also considers it unlikely that a dangerous variant of the coronavirus will spread again in Germany.

Defense against the coronavirus seems to be working very well, he said, in terms of antibodies and T-cell immunity: “We’re seeing the number of serious illnesses going down, more and more. I don’t think we’ll have another setback.”

Karagiannidis considers the wave of respiratory diseases in Germany to be the peak. “At the moment we know that a very strong wave of infections has just reached its peak and that the number of infections will hopefully decrease in the coming days,” said the president of the German Society for Intensive Care Medicine. There are already signs of a slight decrease in the incidence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and other infectious diseases.

However, Karagiannidis warned that there could be clinic lockdowns on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Eve, although they would only be regional and not national. Considering the overcrowding of hospitals, he appealed to the population not to use firecrackers on New Year’s Eve.

Return to normal

Infectious disease experts have expressed optimism about the Covid-19 situation in Germany, and after almost three years of the pandemic, several federal states are moving towards a new normal in the fight against the coronavirus – abandoning behavioral recommendations and daily restrictions.

And a well-known Berlin virologist believes that the Covid-19 pandemic in Germany is over. This will be the first endemic wave this winter, Christian Drosten told Tagesspiegel.

Drosten concludes that the pandemic in the country is already over. “This winter we are experiencing the first endemic wave of Sars-CoV-2, and in my opinion the pandemic is over,” said Charite, head of virology at Berlin University Hospital.

Immunity against Sars-CoV-2 will be so broad and strong after the winter that the virus is unlikely to survive the summer, Drosten said. According to his assessment, the situation may be different if the pathogen undergoes another mutational jump. “But I don’t expect that at the moment.”

“Christian Drosten was one of the most cautious scientists during the pandemic. Now he concludes: the pandemic is over. We are in an endemic state. As a political consequence, we have to stop the last protective measures against Covid-19,” German Justice Minister Marco Buschmann appealed.