More than 5,000 people are likely to die of COVID-19 in China every day, according to estimates by medical data company Airfinity, which stands in stark contrast to Beijing’s official figures on the country’s ongoing epidemic. The assessment came after a hospital in Shanghai late on Wednesday asked staff to prepare for a “tragic battle” with COVID-19, as half of the city’s 25 million residents are expected to be infected by the end of next week, Reuters reported.

The British company Airfinity explained that it used modeling based on data from Chinese regions to calculate the announced figures. It is also estimated that the current daily number of coronavirus infections in the country exceeds one million.

Its estimates “contrast sharply with official figures, which announced 1,800 cases and only seven official deaths in the past week,” the firm said in a statement.

China’s National Health Commission (NHC) did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment. No new deaths from COVID-19 were reported on Thursday, and there were only 2,966 new local symptomatic cases on Wednesday.

2.1 million dead in China’s current Covid wave

A top official at the World Health Organization said on Wednesday that China may struggle to track the spread of COVID-19 as it sees a sharp rise in cases.

China’s sudden abandonment of its zero-response policy against COVID-19 after protests in several cities raised global concerns about the spread of infections among a vulnerable and under-vaccinated population. China has stopped mass testing and is no longer reporting asymptomatic cases.

Airfinity said its mortality risk analysis showed that between 1.3 million and 2.1 million people could die during the current wave of COVID in China. Analyzes by other modeling groups also predicted 2.1 million deaths.

It will also reach 3-4 million cases per day

Airfinity estimates the surge could have two peaks: 3.7 million a day in mid-January in regions where cases are currently rising, and 4.2 million a day in March in other provinces.

According to the firm, the number of cases increased the fastest in Beijing and the southern province of Guangdong.

A top Chinese medical expert said this week that only deaths caused by pneumonia and respiratory failure after contracting COVID will be classified as caused by the coronavirus.

Dr Louise Blair, head of vaccines and epidemiology at Airfinity, said the approach “is different from other countries that report deaths within a certain interval after a positive test (and) … may minimize the degree of death seen in China”.

“All of Greater Shanghai will fall in this tragic battle”

Shanghai’s Deji Hospital estimated in an evening post on WeChat on Wednesday that there are about 5.43 million positive people in the city and that 12.5 million people in China’s economic capital will be infected by the end of the year.

“This year, Christmas Eve, New Year’s Eve and Chinese New Year will be dangerous,” said the private hospital, which employs about 400 people.

“In this tragic battle, all of Greater Shanghai will fall, and we will infect all the hospital staff! Let’s infect our whole family! All our patients will be infected! We have no choice and we cannot run away,” the hospital added in a message that disappeared from WeChat by Thursday afternoon. A person who answered the hospital’s main phone line said he could not comment on the article.

Shanghai residents endured a two-month lockdown that ended on June 1, when there was a problem with the purchase of essential goods and many lost their incomes. During these two months, hundreds of people died from Covid and hundreds of thousands were infected.

On Thursday, many areas of Shanghai were almost as deserted as they were then, as residents decided to self-isolate and many businesses closed due to sick employees.

“All our workers are sick,” said the supermarket worker as he closed the door.