The reduction in purchasing power due to inflation will affect consumption next year, says Adrian Codirlashu, vice president of the Romanian CFA association.
In this environment, he said, CFA analysts’ expectations for economic growth for 2023 also fell, registering a value of 1.3%.
Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, over 90% of participants expect the lei to depreciate over the next 12 months (compared to the current value). Thus, the average expected value for the 6-month horizon is 5.0279 lei per euro, while for the 12-month horizon the average expected exchange rate is 5.1021 lei per euro.
They expect next year (12 months) 3-month ROBOR to reach 8.22%.
The projected deficit of the state budget for 2022: the average value of expectations decreased to 6.6%, and for 2023 – the estimated value of 6.2%.
The share of public debt in GDP may increase to 56% in the next 12 months.
For this year, the government calculated the budget deficit at the level of 5.74%, and for 2023 – 4.4% of GDP. Economic growth, on which the budget was built, is 2.8%, and inflation at the end of next year is 8%.
Source: Hot News
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