About 80% of CFA experts expect a fall in prices for residential real estate in large cities (opinions about price increases are not recorded), and more than 83% of participants consider these prices to be overvalued (none of the survey participants believed that they would be undervalued).

Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, more than 83% of participants expect the lei to depreciate over the next 12 months (compared to the current value). Thus, the average value of expectations for a 6-month horizon is 5.0000 lei per euro, while for a 12-month horizon the average value of the expected exchange rate is 5.0652 lei per euro. Both expected values ​​show a slight decrease compared to the study in August.

Expected public budget deficit for 2022: The average value of expectations fell to 6.6%, and for 2023 the estimated value is 5.8%, according to a statement sent by CFA Romania on Tuesday.

The expected dynamics of real GDP in 2022 increased to 4.5%. For 2023, the expected value of real GDP growth is 1.6%.

Public debt to GDP is expected to rise to 57% in the next 12 months.

Adrian Codirlashu, CFA – Vice-President of the Romanian CFA Association states: “Amid expectations of a strong slowdown in the global economy, the macroeconomic confidence indicator continued to fall, registering values ​​close to historic lows, an evolution in with a decline to historic lows in indicators trusted worldwide. In line with the decline in confidence in the economy, expectations for economic growth have also fallen from 4.5% in 2022 to 1.6% in 2023.”

The CFA Romania Association macroeconomic confidence indicator fell to 33.3 points. This situation occurred due to a decrease of 0.3 points in the component of expectations and 3.4 points in the component of current conditions. The expected level of inflation for the 12-month horizon increased compared to the previous period, reaching an average value of 10.56%.