The National Bank of Romania (BNR) raised its inflation forecast for the end of this year to 16.3% and estimates inflation at 11.2% for the end of next year, according to data presented on Monday by BNR Governor Mugur. Isarescu
In August 2022, the BNR estimated inflation at 13.9% at the end of the year and 7.5% in 2023. Also, in May 2022, the central bank predicted inflation of 12.5% at the end of this year and 6.7% next year.
According to central bank data, annual consumer price inflation is forecast to rise slightly until the end of next year and then adjust as both supply shocks and aggregate demand pressures gradually dissipate.
In the baseline scenario, the downward trend will be temporarily interrupted in the third quarter of 2023, when the energy price caps come into effect, affecting the annual CPI inflation rate for 4 quarters.
Subsequently, at the end of the third quarter of 2024, the convergence to the inflation target is expected to be rapid, the main source of which is extremely favorable base effects.
According to Agerpres, the presentation states that the extension of the cap scheme beyond August 31, 2023, at first glance, implies a level of the indicator at the end of 2023 of about 4.1 percentage points below the level specified in the base scenario and, in addition, a continuous downward trend trajectory
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