​Deprived of long-term supplies from Russia, Europe has rushed to import liquefied gas from around the world, and now the combination of unusually warm weather and large reserves of liquefied gas means gas storage is almost full before Europeans give way to thermostats. , writes the Bloomberg agency, which quotes Agerpres.

There are risks to the period ahead, as a cold snap could force Europe to resort to gas from storage.

In addition, governments in the region are closely monitoring threats of possible sabotage of energy assets, which could disrupt the market. Still, at the end of October, the European continent is in a better position than the decision makers had hoped.

“The gas surplus in Europe is expected to last at least until December. Europe is unlikely to experience a long cold wave in November,” says Giacomo Masato, chief analyst at the Italian energy company Illumia.

Meanwhile, gas prices are at their lowest level in four months, even though February futures are 44% above November, suggesting the market expects supply problems to persist.

Analysts say that reducing gas consumption remains important

All this means that the reduction of gas consumption, despite the mirage of low prices, remains relevant.

Analysts at Timera Energy estimate that for the whole of 2022, gas demand will fall by 7-9%, mainly due to the closure of large industrial consumers, which means the EU’s target of reducing consumption by 15%.

“Europe’s ability to deal with parallel crises in electricity and natural gas over the next two years depends largely on its ability to reduce demand. We believe that this crisis is far from over,” Timera analysts say.

However, for now, ships loaded with liquefied gas continue to arrive.

According to Bloomberg, during this month, Northwest Europe will receive 82 tanks with liquefied gases, which is 19% more than in September. And more vessels are staying longer in so-called floating storage in anticipation of higher prices and because there is limited access to fuel, says shipbroker Fearnleys A/S.

The fear that Russia may completely stop the supply of natural gas

The situation may persist until mid-January, believes Oystein Kalleklev, general manager of the Norwegian company Flex LNG Ltd., which owns vessels specializing in the transportation of liquefied gases.

But even if prices fall for the time being, demand from Asia may increase, and Russia may cut off gas transit through Ukraine, either intentionally or due to infrastructure damage in the context of ongoing hostilities.

Both elements could put upward pressure on prices and make it harder to fill warehouses next year.

Meanwhile, European energy ministers are discussing a temporary cap on basic gas prices. One of the main arguments against this decision is that it will make it harder for Europe to attract the liquefied gas it needs in winter.