There are still three weeks left before the start of the cold season in terms of gas supply (November 1 – March 31), and the Romanian authorities do not yet have an emergency plan. In addition, our country has not signed a contract to import gas from any country except Russia, and it is not known what we will do in the winter without supplies from Gazprom.

Every year, at the end of summer, the Ministry of Energy develops a plan for emergency situations in gas supply, which describes in black and white what measures are taken in the event of a shortage.

This year, we have reached October, and the authorities are still talking about analyzing different scenarios.

“We are analyzing scenarios that will help us face the challenges that may arise during this winter. There are different scenarios. When this plan is finalized, it will be approved by a decision of the Government. It will certainly include consumer data that will be continuous,” said Dan Dragan, Secretary of State for the Ministry of Energy, at a conference organized by Profit.ro earlier this week.

What do these scenarios really mean and what does the Secretary of State mean when he talks about seamless access consumers?

The scenarios refer to a situation in which we may find ourselves with very high consumption or shortage of gas: very low temperatures, suspension or reduction of imports, reduction of domestic production due to accidents or inability to produce gas from fields. .

Uninterruptible consumers are those that can be disconnected from the gas network so that the population and social institutions are not affected. In the previously approved plans, it was specified who exactly these consumers are, who was also the largest consumer of gas in the country, how much can be taken from each and in what order.

Since the beginning of the year, these consumers had a special status and lower tariffs for gas transportation precisely because they could be disconnected in the event of an emergency. This year, this did not happen, so we do not have a single consumer who would have such an “outage” status.

In addition, uninterrupted consumers of the past years are closed or operating with very reduced capacity, such as Azomureş or Interagro.

Elsen and Brazi power plants remained the only large gas consumers. Elcen thermal power plants can also run on fuel oil, but it pollutes much more than gas. Another power plant, in Braga, is difficult to close because it provides more than 10% of Romania’s electricity production. Unfortunately, the Brazi power plant is fed from the same gas storage as the Bucharest municipality (Bilciureşti storage), which further complicates the situation.

The action plan will be applied in the event of an emergency situation in the gas supply, which has happened several times in recent years. For example, in January 2009, Gazprom stopped supplying gas through Ukraine, including Romania. Then Interagro and Azomureş were closed and Elcen switched to fuel oil.

Why does Romania import gas in winter?

Everywhere we hear statements from Romanian officials who tell us that we will survive the winter well, that we have full gas reserves. But we have them completely in vain, if we do not have a greater mining capacity.

Technically, we can extract only 31-32 million cubic meters per day from the deposits, – says General Director of Transgaz, Ion Sterian.

Domestic gas production may reach 30 million cubic meters per day, including new gas from the Black Sea. In previous years, during the frosty periods of January and February, gas consumption in the country exceeded 70 million cubic meters per day, a record 73 million cubic meters.

Therefore, even with full storage, mathematically we still do not ensure consumption in peak periods in winter and are forced to import gas.

Turkey demands very high tariffs for gas transit

The problem is that, apart from the Russian Federation, Romania does not have a signed import contract. Energy Minister Virgil Popescu has been saying the same thing since the summer: that he is negotiating with Azerbaijan and let’s wait until he announces something.

Sources in the energy sector say that it was Turkey that prevented a specific contract for the import of gas from Azerbaijan to Romania, as it demanded very high transit rates.

The same sources say that Romania may conclude a deal with Greece sooner than we see gas from Azerbaijan. Especially since the gas pipeline between Greece and Bulgaria, which completes a very important gas transport corridor from Southern Europe to Romania, became operational on October 1.

The authorities joke and say to sleep peacefully

Asked what the most pessimistic scenario the ministry is working on, Dan Dragan joked: “The most pessimistic scenario is the one on the left, and the most optimistic is the one on the right.”

Then he added: “Now we are working on their development, in a specialized direction in the ministry, but certainly these scenarios will provide the necessary natural gas for domestic consumers and for thermal power plants that provide heating agent and electricity. to the population Depending on the degree of their complexity and the need for disclosure, we will see at that time.”

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