A new pipeline across the Sahara could supply Europe with African gas in exchange for Russian gas – if the pipeline were built. The energy ministers of Nigeria, Niger and Algeria signed a declaration of intent in late July. In 2008, representatives of these countries already met to agree on the construction of a gas pipeline, but the plans were frozen shortly thereafter.

According to experts, it will take a long time for the gas to reach Europe, some say at least 10 years. “It seems to me that this is just an agreement on paper, not backed by actions,” Isaac Botti, a public finance expert at the Nigerian Association of ICAN Auditors in Abuja, told DW. According to him, one of the main obstacles to the implementation of the project is the lack of political will, political framework conditions and money.

4 thousand km gas pipeline

Nigeria would be the main fuel supplier for the new pipeline, so the government should see to it that construction begins, says Botti. In his opinion, the war in Ukraine gives African countries the opportunity to enter the global gas market, investors will be found if they are convinced of the seriousness of their intentions. Since the beginning of Russian aggression against Ukraine, European countries have been trying to find new gas suppliers around the world.

The construction costs of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (NIGAL) are estimated at 13 billion euros, some sources say around 20 billion. Its extension will be 4,000 km, of which 1,000 km will pass through Nigeria, 800 km through Niger and 2,300 km through Algeria. From here, gas can be shipped to Europe via the existing Trans-Mediterranean pipeline (TransMed) or via the LNG terminal. In addition, NIGAL will supply gas to the regions where it will be released. According to the plans, 30 billion cubic meters of gas will be pumped through this pipeline annually.

Gas wealth and extreme poverty

Nigeria is already Africa’s second largest gas exporter and also has the continent’s largest oil fields. According to Botti, the country has one of the largest deposits in the world of five trillion cubic meters of gas with the potential to produce 85 billion cubic meters annually. Nigeria could earn up to 800 billion euros in this project, says the expert.

Obstacles to project implementation are extreme poverty and instability in Nigeria, terror, which spans the Muslim north of the country. Another problem that could scare investors is the European Union’s intention in the fight against climate change in the future to ditch hydrocarbons for energy and switch to “green hydrogen”. By 2030, carbon dioxide emissions in the EU must be reduced by 55%.

Gas revenues are necessary for the country’s development

According to Botti, the lack of resources for the country’s development could put pressure on the Nigerian authorities to implement the project. Despite the large income Nigeria receives from the sale of oil, it has serious financial problems. Public debt, according to official data, in the first quarter of this year rose by two trillion to 41 trillion naira (about 93 billion euros). The specialist expects an active civil society, which, demanding an increase in spending on the country’s development, pays attention not only to the oil sector, as it used to be, but also to the gas sector.

Another factor is the power struggle. Botti said politicians should overcome partisan divisions and seize the opportunity to generate additional revenue from the new pipeline for the country’s development, as well as invest in renewable energy production. Progress can start after the change of government in the 2023 elections, believes the expert.

Section of the TransMed pipeline in Tunisia

Algeria has the means and technical capabilities

In turn, specialist Brahim Kas, from the University of Paris 8, sees in the three countries the “real” political will to implement the NIGAL project. “Anyway, it’s much bigger now than it was in the 2000s,” Cus told DW, as “the geopolitical gas crisis today is much bigger, deeper and will last longer.” For him, Algeria has technical and financial possibilities for the construction of the gas pipeline and, thanks to the sharp rise in blue fuel prices, more room for manoeuvre.

The existing TransMed pipeline connects Algeria via Tunisia to Italy. The Algerian and Italian governments have already agreed to increase their capacity during this and next year. “In this way, TransMed will reach its maximum yield,” says Kas.

According to the expert, this should motivate the European Union to return to the implementation of another project – GALSI, which was abandoned for environmental reasons. This pipeline was planned to be laid from Algeria through Sardinia to northern Italy. Algeria could build this branch of the gas pipeline, but, as Kas notes, it needs long-term guarantees for gas purchases by EU countries.