Inflation prospects are growing both inside the country and abroad. In this context, we are most likely to see a new increase in the monetary policy interest rate by 100 basis points to 5.75% on Friday, Florian Libokor, BRD’s chief economist, said on Thursday, less than 24 hours before the Central the bank will raise the lei rate.

Expectations of the markets regarding the limitation or even the reversal of price dynamics (reduction of inflation) are placed no earlier than the second half of next year. In my opinion, such an approach is not unrealistic, but a little optimistic, Libocor believes.

After the meeting on August 5 this year, we have two more regular meetings: October 5 and November 8, respectively.

Assuming the tightening cycle continues at the same pace this year, the original assumption that we would end the year with a policy interest rate of 6.25% has been exceeded. the BRD economist also believes.

“Thus, it is safe to assume that we will likely end the year with a higher policy rate, somewhere between 6.50% (if we see an increase below 100 basis points over the last two sessions) to 7.25%, which exceeds initial expectations by 25-100 basis points.

At this point, I think it would be nice if it stopped there, but I’m not sure about that. And from the second half of next year, the consequences of the election campaigns will be visible in the market,” Florian Libokor told us on Thursday.