Financially attractive, super ethanol? Since the beginning of the year, this question arises regularly. And not for nothing: last January, E85 crossed the symbolic bar of 1 euro per liter, even reaching an average of 1.12 euros in March, without ever coming to his senses. Far from the 2022 average (0.79 cents) and even further from the 2021 average (0.67 cents). If other types of fuel also increased, then to a lesser extent. Therefore, the average price of SP95-E10 increased by approximately 7% between the first half of 2022 and 2023 compared to 25% increase for E85.

Several factors increase

Why such a flash for this fuel, which mainly (up to 85%) consists of ethanol obtained from the fermentation of beets and grains? The price of gas has benefited. Indeed, the gas required for ethanol production is negotiated by producers during September and October for the entire next year. However, at this time in 2022, in the conditions of war in Ukraine, the price of gas has increased six times! The surge felt at the pump since January 2023 and for the entire year.

The psychological threshold has been exceeded

The implication: If sales of original Flexfuel models (namely the Ford Focus, Kuga and Puma) were not affected by this increase in the first half of 2023, the market for converter boxes, to put it mildly, has run out. And players in the sector (producers, agricultural unions, etc.) agree that exceeding the psychological threshold of 1 €/l greatly affected by the installation of boxes. However, on closer inspection, the price difference between the SP95-E10 and the E85 has always favored the latter. In detail, the average difference was 85 cents in 2021 and 95 cents in 2022, compared to 76 cents in the first half of 2023.

Always interesting for heavy riders

Even with this reduced difference and taking into account the 25-30% excess consumption caused by E85, a motorist who drives 12,000 km per yearat 7L/100km, makes a €1,000 (observed average) unit profitable after just two years: he saves about 450 euros per year. Especially since the depreciation is a little faster based on current prices, for which the difference is about 85 cents. In addition, according to the manufacturer of cases, since the beginning of the school year, sales have started to increase again.

The coming fall?

What can we expect in the coming months? The famous €1 threshold should remain until the end of 2023 because, as previously explained, gas prices are discussed throughout the year. And, actually, we already know what to expect in 2024: they were divided more or less by seven compared to last year! Should we expect a significant impact on the pump? Several indicators suggest this, even if they remain unknown, such as the price of raw materials (in this case, beets and grains) and the trajectory of oil, which are closely related to the current conflicts. In addition, it is not at all certain that distributors will immediately bear the entire drop in gas prices…The most optimistic scenario? A liter is about 80 cts, or even 75 cts during the first quarter of 2024.

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