The price of olive oil is at a high level from field to shelf. The European market is experiencing an unprecedented situation, and analysts are not yet able to predict the moment when this market will begin to unwind, writes the Greek publication To Vima.

It is especially relevant that the largest price increase was recorded in the three olive oil-producing countries in the European Union. In addition, “olive oil inflation” prevails in all countries, which registers double-digit growth.

In particular, according to data published by the European statistical body Eurostat, in January 2024 the price of olive oil in the EU was 50% higher than in January 2023. The price of olive oil increased especially in the second half of 2023. in August, the jump was 37% (compared to August 2022), and in September (+44%) and October (+50%), the trend accelerated. The maximum annual growth occurred in November 2023 (+51% by November 2022). December saw a slight slowdown, with prices up 47% (compared to December 2022).

The main characters of growth

In January 2024, all EU countries reported annual increases in olive oil prices, according to disaggregated data published by Eurostat. The highest growth was recorded in Portugal (+69% compared to January 2023), followed by Greece (+67%) and Spain (+63%).

Conversely, the lowest price growth was recorded in Romania (+13%), Ireland (+16%) and the Netherlands (+18%).

Market dynamics

The market dynamics that existed at the end of 2023 continued into early 2024 with high prices for both refined and extra virgin olive oils.

The olive oil industry is facing unprecedented challenges already at the production stage due to crop cuts in the main producing countries (Greece, Spain and Italy), general inflation, and an expected decline in local consumption. However, despite the slight decline in local consumption, prices remain high due to continued demand in export markets.

Production issues

According to the latest figures (February 15, 2024) published by the European Commission, production in Greece between October 2023 and January 2024 in the 2023/24 season was 131,500 tonnes, with numbers expected to increase over time up to 155,000 tons. Of these quantities, consumption is expected to be 95,000 tonnes, and ending stocks of olive oil are estimated at 1,720 tonnes.

In contrast, Italy’s olive oil production appears to be slightly above initial estimates, which recorded 774,653 tonnes from the start of the season to the January harvest, with numbers expected to eventually reach 800,000 tonnes. Consumption is expected to be 369,495 tonnes and ending stocks at 233,511 tonnes.

Italy is expected to produce a third of Europe’s olive oil this year due to poor harvests in Spain and Greece.

Spanish production currently stands at 315,995 tonnes, while final production is expected to reach 324,000 tonnes in the 2023/24 season. As for consumption, it is forecast to reach 470,000 tons, while stocks are expected to reach 140,000 tons.

It should be noted that total European production as of January is 1,379,063 tonnes, while the final quantity to be produced is estimated at 1,442,500 tonnes. The resulting reserves are estimated at 376,431 tons.

The material was created with the support of Rador Radio Romania